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The End Of The Travel Industry?

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Earlier in the day I was thinking about the travel industry. Obviously, this was decimated due to the lockdowns from COVID-19.

At this moment, those in the airline, hotel, and restaurant industries are suffering. While their numbers are up from the lows, they are still struggling.

We also see the conference/seminar industry being hit hard, which further puts strain on the hotels which often how these events.

How soon until the industry recovers?

Could the answer be never?

It is becoming obvious that this will take a number of years before things have a prayer of bouncing back. Even if the vaccines are disbursed, will people still feel comfortable traveling? With discussions about vaccine passports, some might opt out of the travel game for a long while.

Of course, there is the economic factor of things. With tens of millions in the United States alone out of work, obviously affording travel is not on the agenda.

The challenge with something taking a few years to recover is that it starts to get into the technological curve that we are witnessing. This will put added pressure on those firms in that industry.

Naturally, the industry will not disappear altogether. However, it could be radically downsized before there is any chance of recovering.

As I was pondering this, I can across an article that aptly destroyed the technological shift that might take place.

Many feel that Virtual Reality will affect travel in the future. Unfortunately, for this outlook, it is not a futuristic event. It is already happening.

The lockdowns forced people to look for alternatives since travel was out of the question. Already, Virtual Reality is picking up some steam in this area.

We are in the early phases of the technology yet application developers are working hard to get more "trips" for people to enjoy.

Alcove Vr is one company that is rushing to get products out to users.

"It has been skyrocketing," said Cezara Windrem, creator of the Alcove VR platform at AARP Innovation Labs. "We're getting more adoption every month."

Alcove enables users to visit exotic locales such as Australia's coral reef or the island of Malta, while adding a "shared" experience which enables people to interact and even "lead" a family member without the technical skills to navigate in a VR headset.

"We've heard from a lot of people who discovered Alcove and decided buy a headset for their elderly family members," Windrem said.

The advantage is that people can enjoy many parts of the world without leaving their living room. As the technology advances, this will only get more realistic. The goal is to provide us with fully immersive experiences. We are going to have to see progress in a few different aspects such as haptic technology for this end to be realized.

Nevertheless, we are seeing the interest growing.

Opponents of this concept, usually those who are tied to the travel industry, claim that VR is no substitute for the real thing. Certainly, this is true and nobody will state otherwise, especially at these early stages. Of course, VR will not allow one to enjoy the culture and food.

The flip side is that one does not have to get on planes, stand in line in airports, or spend sums on money to spend a week or 10 days in a particular area.

A lot of this has appeal in a world where there is still uncertainty regarding COVID or other strains.

In short, the fear of the virus will outlast the virus itself.

If this persists, we could see it cross the point where technology starts to take over.

With the tourism industry largely obliterated by the coronavirus outbreak, virtual reality has emerged as both a substitute for real-world travel and a complement to help people plan their next trip.

App developers have created a range of travel experiences: touring the pyramids of Egypt, the Taj Mahal, the savannahs of Kenya or the Antarctic from a kayak. These come from commercial operators or organizations such as National Geographic or World Wildlife Fund.

Source

Forecasts are that we could see VR entering mainstream by the middle of this decade. Some are expecting the travel industry to take roughly 3 years to recover. That would see both timelines converging upon each other.

A breakthrough in VR technology could speed up this process, causing an even greater overlap.

How this affects the travel industry remains to be seen. However, if people are already finding VR as a substitute, this will only grow as the VR technology improves. One of the first areas we are could see this is with business travel. This segment of the market was already disrupted (with COVID's help) by video conferencing.

Imagine what happens when companies have access to more advanced VR than it available today. They might forego the cost of airline tickets, hotels, and the time it takes to send employees all over the world.

Could all this amount to a 25% reduction in the travel industry? 33%? 50%?

We can only watch what is taking place at this place. However, it might be prudent to consider some of these questions at it pertains to this industry. There could be a great shakeup which will affect the companies in these industries.


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