Crypto Analysis | Hive In The Bear
Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
It's been a roller coaster ride for crypto in recent weeks
All coins have taken a dump which still amazes me since this means that they all correlate to Bitcoin without a fundamental reason to do so. But like pointed out before there is a chance that with the 12 weeks+ correction and being in an historic oversold range (RSI at record low levels), the bear market's main correction is now completed. What normally follows is a long (months) sideways movement and a retest of the lows. For Bitcoin this would mean probably a retest of the 18-20k levels! Nevertheless with the strong uptrend of recent days we might be finally in for a bear rally!
What's up with Hive?
In the past I have laid out several scenarios for Hive. One crucial factor that separates them is the question whether Hive can remain within the ascending or the parallel channel. Amazingly, it seems that Hive is still in the ascending one! While the price did reach newer lows, it did close within that channel on the weekly chart which in my opinion is more important than the daily chart for a more long term perspective.
Here is one of the scenarios (of the 4 analyzed). Amazingly, this was the most bullish one and until now we are still in it! Of course as you can see it is already different from the path I anticipated (Hive didn't stay above 50 cents), but the main point is that we are still in the ascending channel. I will give a better outlook below.
Here is the current chart:
I think what will come next is a bear rally. This is where people FOMO, but it is still not the start of the next bull cycle. In fact, we could still go lower than current levels and head into the parallel channel. But so far, the ascending channel has held up.
The main resistance is at around 60 cents where we have two major trend lines converging. I don't think we have the momentum to rush past them (yet). For this reason I would see a correction which then leads to a junction: heading into the parallel channel or actually maintaining the impulse wave and head higher.
Finally, look at the volume: it is finally increasing again! :)
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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