Crypto Analysis | Hive: The Bigger Picture
Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
While the days can be volatile, the big picture is much more steady
And for Hive everything has been pointing up! Just some days ago I was talking about the "volume mystery" which seems to indicate that some entities may have stopped trading Hive. While this may reduce volatility (mostly to the upward side), it does not necessarily have to remain this way, especially with the tremendous progress that is being made on Hive. There is almost no week where there is not a major announcement - with the recent one being the HBD 20% APR increase which is quite something. And it seems we will be getting the pHBD-USDC liquidity pool with it from the @leofinance team :)
So looking at the bigger picture I think we can get a fairly comprehensive understanding of what's going on with Hive (from a TA perspective). The most striking feature here I believe is the upwards channel in which Hive has been trading for over a year now. We have yet to test the bottom support of this channel which is perhaps why the "lift off" has not quite happened with the most recent rally bringing price to ~$1.25. Price movements tend to extend to their max; which could mean that a further correction to ~$0.7 could be underway. But that doesn't have to happen as the dotted trend line has been a strong support and has once more held.
If you look closely you can see that price has traded sideways for the last months just sitting above that dotted trend line. I think it has prevented price from reaching the bottom support of the channel and might therefore be strong enough to act as a springboard for higher price levels.
We can also clearly see the horizontal division in the chart. Price broke through the resistance of the former ATHs in fall of last year. Since then price has stayed above this horizontal trend line. In other words, resistance became support. We therefore have two major supporting trend lines coming up: the bottom from the channel as well as the horizontal one. Together they should keep prices elevated.
But there is yet a third layer of support. The most recent rally has in fact been a breakout of the downward mid term correction. It often happens that this breakout retests the former resistance which we are currently observing. As you can see there is still room for further sideways movement(not so much downward potential).
We can therefore draw several scenarios. I am still expecting the crypto market to rally in this summer. For this reason I have both scenarios peaking at around this time. But with big differences.
I am favoring the bullish scenario for the reasons outlined above. This would see a peak between $5-$10. Although price has to recover rather quickly now to still see a $10 high. So it might be lower than that or the bull rally ends later. However, I am expecting a stark correction once again bringing us perhaps under the supporting trend line of the channel. This would be the potential bear market that would nevertheless have Hive over $1.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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