Crypto Analysis | Hive's Potential Price Target for the Next Bull Cycle
Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Yesterday we looked at the potential bear market low for Hive
This could be at around 25 cents if we assume another FTX like crash for the market. Although this scenario does assume that Hive recovers to about 40 cents before such a crash occurs. If not, then 20 cents is also a possibility. Again, I never thought that Hive would revisit the 20 cents area, but here we are.
But today I want to look at what the next bull cycle could hold in store for Hive! This will probably be in 2025 - a really long way out actually. But this is when Bitcoin would peak if we take the length of the last bull cycle run ups and believe that a similar time span will transpire for this cycle as well.
3 years is almost an eternity in the crypto space. So this scenario is just a very rough estimate. Anything could happen in the next years; like a quasi mainstream adoption of Hive or even the termination of the chain. Generally speaking, the middle of both extremes is the most likely outcome. So I will try to give a range for the price outlook that could reflect the most likely development.
Predicting this range is actually rather simple. We establish the most basic trend lines which currently forms a parallel channel (as noted in the last post this could change if we get a bigger correction). We then draw these lines to the year 2025. The peak of the general market would be in fall/winter of that year. We get this chart:
The upper boundary is at around $25 and the lower one at around $1.3. This is a huge gap, but nothing unusual for crypto coins. The idea for this projection is that price would stabilize within this channel. After being down 93% from its ATHs, it does not seem like a big leap of faith that prices could be climbing again. Also, the channel itself currently has a price increase of about 75% per year. This seems actually fairly reasonable. If it would be 200% or 500% one would have to assume that the channel itself is not sustainable.
The main caveat for this chart is the question of whether price can hold at around 30 cents in the next few weeks. If not, this parallel channel would be invalidated and the lower range of this outlook would be a lot lower. It would then also be unlikely that price would ever reach the upper target of about $25. However, if it does hold, then I think these estimates are rather realistic. Especially since some other Hivers called for $80-$100 for Hive which I do think is rather unrealistic (@taskmaster4450 @khaleelkazi @aggroed).
We also have to keep in mind that this is 3 years out. And with the amount of projects coming to Hive and the amount of development going on here, it seems like Hive has everything it needs to reach these levels. Even if we assume only a mid level scenario price could still reach around $6 in 2025.
It is very difficult to try to highlight a path for the development of price for such a long time span. The most obvious resistances along the way, however, would be the ones shown in red here:
One at around 40 cents in the short term, 2 at around 50-60 cents in the mid-term and at around $2+ for the long term. Since Hive has not been around for too long (discarding the charts of Steem), it is difficult to assess the shape of the potential movement. For example, will we see another head and shoulder pattern? The only certain thing is that we know that Hive's fractal looks like this, which repeats in various variations:
The isolated one is drawn in blue, stitched together it can also look like the big pattern in the circle. One possible scenario could look something like this:
Again, every path drawn in this chart is bound to fail; more important is the channel. If this parallel channel is confirmed, then Hive's price outlook will be very favorable.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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