Crypto Analysis | I hope you didn't panic!
Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Over a month ago we argued that BTC was heading for 19-20k when we were at the 13k range
But I also emphasized that we would see a correction after that. Why was this analysis so successful?
The answer is fractal analysis. The beauty of it is that this analysis is simple. Other methods can often be very complex and therefore confusing, so I think it's best to keep it simple. Fractal analysis looks at repeating patterns throughout time. It can be very successful as these patterns constantly repeat albeit in different forms. But there is also a caveat: one has to know at what point of the fractal one currently is at. Only then is a successful prediction possible. This can be easier or more difficult, but in the case of bitcoin it was obvious. What happened when we hit the all time high the last time?
There was a correction of about 35%:
Although it is yet unclear if we are heading for a correction of similar magnitude, I was expecting at least 10%. This is also evident is you look at the price action in close up:
The last few weeks were just pointing upwards. If you ever see a chart like this be sure to stay cautious. I have laid a fibonacci ratio over this time period as I have often seen a price correction to a 0.5 or 0.382 level. This is marked in red. If support fails to hold at current levels I expect a correction to about 13-15k levels. Remember, our main hypothesis is that price will stick to the "orange line" (the big one in the graph), just like it did in the past.
It is unclear to me how long this correction could last. Generally, the correction phase is much longer than the impulse wave for bitcoin. But there were many exceptions as well. In essence, however, all price ranges now are good buying entries as we (all) expect the price to move much higher sooner. On a side notice, I also observed that upward price action for bitcoin is often correlated with December/January time frames. So this could be a hint that this correction will come to an end at this time.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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