Crypto Analysis | Update on the Bitcoin Moon Cycle
Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
When I first heard about the Bitcoin Moon Cycle connection I laughed it off
But it's a real thing. Who knows, it might be spurious correlation, but now that the word is out for at least over a year it could also have a direct effect on the market by people simply believing in it.
Since my last takes on this mysterious connection, the link has only been getting stronger. The first time several months ago, I stated:
But so far this technique has successfully predicted a future price trend over 70% of the times (the correct areas and Xs in this chart 11/3=0.27%; and 1-0.27=~73%), so we should definitely keep this tool available.
Then on March 9th:
We got a 73% success rate for that time period. Now let's do that for the extended time frame from above. We have 31 moon phases starting on November 29th 2021. Of these there were 7 which were misses, i.e., price went up when the phase would have predicted it to go down and vice versa. This gives us a stunning success rate of 24 / 31 = 77% Pure chance would get this right half of the time, so 50%. This means that the success rate is 27% above chance!
With today's update and the same starting date (November/December 2020), I can now update this to 80%!
Here we see the black Xs which mean that in the period the price did not follow the moon cycle pattern. And we have the blue Xs which mean that the price followed the pattern, but was 3-4 days too late. I feel we should exclude them as the pattern was still being followed. But it depends on the analyst what to do with them. The conservative thing would be to count the black Xs.
Conservatively we then get for the green phases: 4 misses out of 20 cycles. Which means 16 out of 20 were right. Hence the 80% hit rate. If we dismiss the blue Xs this gives us even only 2 misses or a 90% hit rate!
This is a phenomenal result
Everybody should actually be applying this simple trading technique! It is better than basically anyone out there trying to trade. It is that crazy (and actually kind of unheard of I guess).
What would have been the % gain for trading the green phases?
Let's add and subtract all of the green areas. What would be the % gain if one would have started a trade on the first day of the green phase and would have sold on the last day?
Here is an example for April 27th 2021 to May 11th 2021:
We get a +185% increase from December 2020 to June 2022 for 20 green phases!
To put that in perspective, one would have also got a 270% increase from December 2020 to April 2021. But let's be honest, who would have sold at the top?
What this means is that this has proven so far to be an extremely effective long term strategy. Of course it does not take much to wipe out those gains when the cycle does not play out as expected. And it also remains to be seen how this performs in a bear market.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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