Sigh of Relief From BTC Pump

Last week, I wrote about how I was unprepared for a market dip. The reason being that I have loans, which might be subject to margin calls if BTC dropped any further before some other staked cryptos became available to liquidate. The recent pump by Bitcoin has reduced my concern. It is a relief to not have to worry.

It won't be too long before my other cryptos are unstaked and available. I will leave them liquid as a safety net. Any capital gains will have to be enough without also earning yield.

Is This The Big One?

Like many people, I find myself wondering if this Bitcoin pump is The Big One that will go up past $100K. This would put me way past the concern for margin calls. I think the major point of wonder is whether Plan B's Stock-to-Flow model of Bitcoin will be validated. I think many people have been looking to that model for a general sense of what to expect in the coming years. If it holds up, then we might see BTC close to $1 Million by 2024.

Something else that makes one wonder is the constant news about institutional investors entering the market or increasing their holdings. We see the signs of what Raoul Pal calls, the "institutional wall of money" that is headed into the crypto markets. But, given the lingering consolidation period of the past few months, we don't see evidence of it. We all know it's coming. But, when?

Shortening Period

Another thing that is disconcerting is that we are expecting Bitcoin to reach the $100K levels by the end of 2021. We are running short on time to achieve that. I think some of that is mitigated by charts showing that the Bitcoin cycle gets longer each time. So, we may see those numbers in Q2 of 2022 rather than Q4 of 2021. Then again, who knows? The thing about these bull runs is that they tend to get exponential, which defies any calculations a human can do mentally.

I try to not get too wrapped up in the day to day price, except when prices drop to where I might get a margin call. If this is The Big One, then I can breathe a sigh of relief as I can turn my focus to other things. I have a very unsophisticated approach to crypto investing. So, I don't particularly enjoy having to watch for falling Bitcoins.

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