The bull market escapes the top, a key signal worth noting

There will always be some readers who want me to recommend some projects worth investing in now. Regarding this issue, I have already written in the previous article: Since last year Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi tokens that I am optimistic about have exceeded the fixed investment price set by me, I have never invested in any projects again, so this For a while, I don’t have any items to recommend to you.

During this period of time, the most work I have done is to collect and analyze various information, summarize and reflect on my experience and lessons from the scheduled investment in 2018 to the end of the scheduled investment in 2020, instead of continuing to find out if there is a suitable investment target. , Because I think that the prices of almost all valuable currencies are quite high now, and I will not continue to buy at this stage.

There are also readers who always ask whether a certain token is worth it now. In fact, I have repeatedly responded to this question. I have not sold any of the tokens I invested so far, because I think the bull market will continue to go on, and there is still a long way to go before the climax.

If we look at this issue from another angle, I can also suggest that if investors really do not have confidence in the tokens they have bought, they may follow their own inner thoughts and operate according to their own ideas. But after the operation, it is best to take notes and take notes of all the operations you have done during the entire bull market. Then wait until the bull market has completely turned into a bear market, and then look back at your previous operations, summarize what was right and what was wrong, especially review your mentality when performing those wrong operations, and look for the reasons. Sometimes the mistakes, regrets, and regrets you experience personally make you grow more.

I once shared my speculation on the follow-up trend of this bull market in a previous article. A very important factor affecting the follow-up trend of the bull market is when the Fed will raise interest rates .

Regarding interest rate hikes, I remember that the Fed probably said and is very important: it will probably not consider raising interest rates before 2023, will tolerate an average inflation rate of 2% or more, and will not consider increasing until the economy has fully recovered. interest.

Of these three sentences, I think the first sentence is to comfort the market, and the last two sentences are the key factors to consider whether to raise interest rates.

The so-called "will tolerate an average inflation rate of 2% or more" in the second sentence means that the average inflation rate for a period of time should reach or exceed 2%. Now this is the first time that it has exceeded 2%, so if we look at it by this standard, I think the Fed will not raise interest rates for the time being, and it will continue to observe. If the inflation rate in the United States continues to soar in the next few months, then we have to be very careful. So we have to keep an eye on the inflation rate in the next few months.

The third sentence "will not consider raising interest rates until the economy has fully recovered" I think it is also the key point. I guess the Fed will consider this factor and the second factor together. So when will the US economy fully recover?

Before discussing this issue, let’s look at another important piece of information: the chairman of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank said in an interview on Monday that if “when the vaccination rate reaches 75%, the QE reduction issue can be discussed at that time”. What does it mean? What it means is that the Fed President believes that when the vaccination rate reaches 75%, the US economy is likely to recover quickly on Broadway.

According to estimates by the well-known financial media Bloomberg, according to the current progress, the United States will be able to reach this goal in August this year, while another well-known media Zerohedge estimates that this goal will be reached in June this year.

Combining all the above information and what the Federal Reserve has said about raising interest rates, if we follow the most radical estimate, the vaccination rate in the United States will reach 75% in June and the epidemic is gradually being controlled, and the inflation rate will be from now to June. If it continues to soar, then I think the Fed will not only consider shrinking its balance sheet, but it may indeed consider raising interest rates.

The most radical time at this point may be August-October, it may be the end of this year, and it is unlikely to be postponed to 2023.

Once the interest rate is raised, the market's bull-bear reversal may soon come, and we will be ready to cash out on a large scale.

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