Sequel to this post, in which I gave the average buy price for BTC, I have tried to see how high we can go in relation to price during bull market.

In this post I will be using a Fibonacci extension to map out the targets we can achieve, if previous history rhymes. In this analysis, I will be using the extension of 16.88 as the maximum.

Below is the snapshot of the average buying price and the chart followed by the upward target in the bull market.

First cycle

Details: Table showing the Fib retracement analysis (0.618, 0.65, 0.786, 0.886)

The graph of the Fib retracement analysis. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hu49WQhX/

Using Fib extension to project the price target in the bull run that followed. I will be including 8.77 and 16.88 Fibonacci numbers. Note: The lows of the previous market and the highs will be used as the low and high on the Fibonnaci extension. For the first BTC cycle, the low was 7.10 and the last high was 16.45. These values were obtained from the first cycle and indicated in the table above. Also, the prices at the bull market are included.

The price in the table are obtained from the graph below.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dsJoabfI/ From the chart, we saw that the price had a blow-off beyond the Fib-extension of 16.88. However, if a trader exited all trades at the 16.88 Fib number, he /she would have been sitting on a good profit.

In the following cycles, I will make fewer explanations except where necessary.

Second cycle

The chart showing the Fib retracement where buyers are supposed to be loading up.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0G5eEkNF/ Now let us look at the Fib extension of where we are supposed to be selling.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/M2D4UopP/ We can see from this cycle that the run-up stopped at Fib extension of 4.669, before the decline to the bear market.
The table showing the price of the Fibonacci extension

Third cycle

The chart with the Fib retracement levels.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BbniDDoD/ After the bottom is hit, we can use Fib extension to know the prices we should be selling. This table identifies the relevant Fib extension on the chart, for selling As we can see from the chart below, selling at 16.88 Fib extension is a goal. Although, we had a blow-off top after that.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mgrpyHBI/

Now to the fourth cycle, which we are witnessing its bull phase now.

The bear phase had these numbers determined from the Fib retracement in the chart below

The chart with the Fib extension showing the levels of bottoming.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EtnZqtgo/

Now, that we have seen the Bitcoin price retracing to the 0.618 and 0.786 levels, we should now look for the prices to sell using the Fibonacci extension. The table is the summary of the extension.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/658Wq2pP/ Looking at the chart, we can see that the profit objective is at 6 figures for this cycle ($282,380.27), before we can assume a blow-off top. However, this is valid, if history rhymes.

Deductions

We have completed 3 cycles, and the least Fib extension where price topped was at 4.669, which occurred only once.

The other two cycles resulted in the blow-off top above 16.88 Fib extension value, which happened twice.

In summary, we can say, this current trend has a 33.333% chance of topping at Fib extension of 4.669(80,364.91 USD) and a 66.667% of getting to Fib extension of 16.88 (282,380.27 USD).

Whenever we hit the 16.88 Fib extension (282,380.27 USD), then you could adopt a strategy of selling at every 10k USD increase, till the obvious blow-off top occurs.

A question for the readers;

Will you sell at 80,364.91 USD or will you wait for 282,380.27 USD?.

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