Is April Good for trading?
The stock market has always been giving money even when it's losing. Sometimes it's the bears that get the fair share of the market after months in hibernation.
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Since 1928, for over 93 years, the S&P 500 went up 68 years and went down 25 years. I had to count it from the raw data here.
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The worst year for S&P was 1931 with over -43% losses and the best year was 52.56% in 1954. I always believed 2020 was a bumper crop, but it wasn't.
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S&P win/loss ratio over the years is around 75%/25% approximately.
The months of January, April, and December have been the most favorable months for S&P gains since 1928.
Taking it from history, and giving it back nonetheless, April has been a month of blessings. Take it from this research from Bank of America
April has been on the positive side of history with bulls 60 times out of 93. 33 times, it has joined the league of bears. That is more than a 66% chance and probability of April being good for the market this year.
On average, S&P has made 4.3% gains in the month of April for the last 93 years and a loss of -3.8% for the same duration.
So, with a 66% chance of being green and with a gap of +0.5% profits (4.3%-3.8%), I would definitely go for it and take some profits from this market.
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