I am DCA-ing the Dip all the way down to 22K BTCC
Just a little while ago I wrote that I did not expect Bitcoin to dive below 21K How Low Can Bitcoin Go? I say 21K is the absolute bottom! That still remains my point of view. Especially if you consider that 21K is below the 200-Week moving average.
Over the weekend, I was watching Benjamin Cowen talking about BTC's date with destiny. he mentioned that if we would close the week below the 100 WMA (which we did for the first time in 4 years), we would be on our way to visit the 200-week moving average (22K).
Why is that?
Well, because the previous 2 times this happened we did. Those were in 2014, 2018 and now possibly in 2022 (hmm do I smell a 4-year cycle pattern). Both times breaking below the 100 weeks caused a breaking of the 200 weeks moving average within 4 to 6 weeks.
I've heard analysts say that the charts look different this time and that the market nowadays has changed due to the institutional investors it onboarded.
Now I am no expert, but looking at 2014 and 2018 I do not see that much difference compared to the 2022 situation. And I am a strong believer that math is the key to the universe and that history tends to repeat itself.
On top of that Bitcoin is a mathematical creature and it is 2022, so this would be the exact point in the so-called 4-year cycle to truly bottom out.
Are you 4 real?
Well, yes. Institutions have not been investing since this time last year, now you know why.
The institutions that were invested are pulling out, why would that be?
Could it be because they do know more? And they are here to make money, not because they are investing in the future?
So what are you telling me?
I am telling you that if you bought Altcoins on the way down from 50K to where we are today, you are screwed, like me.
You probably believed in that extended supercycle bs, that they sold us. And that you did not respect the beauty of the BTC mathematical order. Or maybe you never even looked at what happened in 2014 and 2018 till now and now it's a bit late.
Too late?
In my case, I saw this sort of coming when we went below 42K for the first time in January 2022. But I kept believing that this would change and we would see one more run up....sell in May and go away.
It did not happen.
I ain't selling
I have been bearish for some time now, but I have not sold. I probably should have but I did not for 2 reasons.
Reason 1 I don't like selling at a loss, even if it is to buy back at the bottom. Although it would have been the smart thing to do, but it took till now to be fully convinced that we will dive below 30K.
And from this point downward the worst-case scenario would be around another 25% drop in my portfolio. So I will just play it safe and Hodl. Because the exact bottom can be anywhere between 27K and 22K. This means that if I sell and do not time my buyback right, I might not even make a profit.
Reason 2 The second reason why I am not selling is that I am currently holding quite a bit of fiat. Which I am using to DCA the dip. Every $1000 we drop I buy $300 of BTC (holding of buying ETH for now as I expect a big drop coming soon).
Now I am not a fan of the DCA method, I always tried to buy on a clear way down, but I am not buying a certain amount each month. I started buying at 37K and currently bought about $1500 of BTC. I expect to end up buying about $4500. Now, why would I be selling my holdings and at the same time DCA-ing the dip?
Bottom Line
I was not as smart as the smart money, I did not expect the party to end when it did. I did take profits on the way up and invested those on the way down. I just did not think we would be heading as far down as I now think we'll do.
But looking at the bright side, I was really annoyed by the high amount of fiat I was holding and the sideway chopping of the crypto market when it was at 42K. Ever since the nosedive to 37K, I felt relieved.
I was finally able to invest a good part of my fiat buying crypto at a 'reasonable' price. Of course I am taking into account that there is always a chance the crypto market will never recover.
But my guess is that Bitcoin has proven to be a mathematical creature holding to its 4-year cycle and being supported by lady Destiny. A Lady that loves working together with Mister History, who loves to repeat himself.
And if that is the case, a new cycle will start in 18 months and I for sure will be better prepared than last time.
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