Argument Against HPUD
This update will include a review of my account, an argument against #hpud and an argument against the high HBD interest rate. This post details my account.
The really big news for June is that I finally reached my goal of 10,000,000 VESTS and my account is officially a dolphin. Hurray for me! Currently 10 MVEST = about 5,500 HP.
NOTE: I bought 3200 HIVE for $480.00 a few years back. If not for that purchase; my account would still be under 1000 HP. Let's face it. I don't do well on HIVE because I have negative reactions to group think.
It is really strange. If a group is thinking in one direction; I almost always find myself thinking in the opposite direction.
But lets get back to my investment. I think the best way to engage in HIVE is to buy a decent stake in HIVE (when the price is low). Having achieved the investment goal, One should start withdraw HIVE. Success is measured by one's ability to withdraw more than put in.
With 5500 HP, my average curation reward is about 0.125 HP. 0.125107 = 8.75. Assuming I will get some author rewards, I feel that I could withdraw 10 HIVE a week. I just launched a power down for 130 HP. This should give me 10 HP a week.
Since HBD interest is higher than the interest on my credit card, I will keep the money in HBD and live on margin. If the price of HIVE drops; I will panic and dump the HBD.
Dumping HBD likely means converting my HBD to HIVE. Specifically, if I see the market value of HBD grow to more than 70% of the market value of HIVE, then I will dump the HBD ... 20% interest be damned.
Now for the Picture
My bicycle tire popped last year. Someone stole my portable hand pump from my bike a few years back. The pump I used at home no longer worked. To make matters worse. My neighborhood is littered with goatsheads and other sharp things; I discovered that the airless tires by Tannus were on sale for $40 a pop. So, I just spent $86 to buy two new tires.
The picture shows the rear cassette of my bike. Yes it is covered with grease and rust.
Rant Against Hive-PUD
I want to repeat. I believe that people on HIVE should buy and power up HIVE.
However, I strongly believe that people should make their financial decisions according to their financial needs. One should avoid making financial decisions based on social pressures. If you bought STEEM on SPUD day, you are likely to get a worse deal than on other days.
SPUD (SteemIt Power Up Day, LEO Pud and HIVE PUD) are all efforts to cajole people into action with social pressure.
Power Up Day creates a false economy in the system. The rogues of the world will use artificial events like HPUD and LEOPUD to schedule their market manipulations.
Power Up day might actually have reverse effects. A case in point is that there was a huge effort to market LEO Power Up Day on June 15th. This chart from LEO Dex shows recent activity on LEO.
Yes, there was a tiny bump in the price leading to LEO PUD. However, since a large number of people who wanted to buy LEO did so on the 15th, there was a PUD dip that pushed the coin to a new low after LEOPUD.
So, while Power Up Day reminds people of the importance of powering up their coins. The event creates a false economy that is easy to manipulate. Yes, the rogues can use PUD to manipulate the price up. But they can also use post PUD to manipulate the price down.
It is better for both the users of HIVE and for platform for users to make their investment decisions based on their personal goals and their personal interpretation of the market. Artificial events simply distort the market and make it harder to read.
A scheduled games like SPUD, HPUD and LEO PUD just set us up for manipulation. Everyone who bought LEO on LEO PUD lost a bit of their savings because of the market manipulation.
Now for the Rant Against High Interest on HBD
I believe that 20% interest on HBD was one of the worst decisions in this platform's history. Selling HBD at junk bond rates does not make HIVE look strong. It makes HIVE look like junk to the traditional investor.
@geekgirl publishes monthly reports on HBD interest. Her June Reports shows that HBD interest dropped from 66,025 HBD in May to 55,929 HBD in June.
The reason for the drop is that some of the large investors panicked. They converted a good portion of their HIVE stake to HIVE when the HIVE dropped into the low $0.30s. They then dumped their HIVE on the market when the price of HIVE was weak.
The reason that stablecoins create death spirals is that people are prone to dump their stablecoins in market down turns.
The high interest on HBD appears to have crashed the price of coins on HE and has depressed the price of HIVE. It was a stupid mistake.
But back to the data: In May the top 8 HBD accounts received over half of the HBD interest.
Some of the top account dumped HBD. In June: the top 12 accounts received over half the HBD interest.
In this lopsided coin, the top 100 accounts earned over 80% of the HBD interest.
There are tens of thousands of active accounts on HIVE. There are millions of inactive accounts. Anyway, the HBD interest is the classic game where the 1% earn more than the bottom 99%.
So, much for the claim that HIVE will usher in a world that benefits mankind as whole. HIVE is just another shell game for the ruling class.
Interestingly, @geekgirl 's post included the following Youtube video. The video below discusses Justin Sun's latest ponzi scheme. Sun released the USDD coin. The author says that a primary indicator that a stablecoin is a ponzi scheme is that the stablecoin offers an absurdly high interest rate. UST had the absurd interest rate of 20%.
Can you believe that anyone actually fell for a ponzi scheme like that just because the coin had a 20% rate?
Justin Sun is currently offering 39% interest. Of course he is the primary holder of the coin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drzrWUn9JQo
Since the witnesses envy Justin Sun, we might see them follow suit.
Conclusion
I believe that people should make investment decisions based on what is best for them. SPUD and its many derivatives are bad things because they use social pressure to influence investment decisions.
The 20% interest on HBD is a negative thing. It makes HIVE look like a ponzi scheme. Since HIVE guarantees HBD with HIVE. The high interest rate puts a downward pressure on HIVE.
Of course the really big news is that I achieved my goal of dolphinhood. I will power down 10 HIVE a week and use it for living. I will stack up on the money as HBD and carry a balance on my credit card.
So, I ordered my bicycle tires earlier this week and am already dreaming of all the places I can go if I become mobile again. I hope I bought the right size!
BTW: I probably should buy new brake pads since the current ones aren't all that effective in stopping the bike. But I will cross that bridge when I come to it.
Hmmm, with that type of thinking, I will stop the bike by plunging into the river.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
