We Will Need 636 New Dolphins to Absorb the HBD Interest in 2023
I was devastated a bit ago when I logged into my Hive-Engine account and found that its value had dropped below $100. I adjusted the account to bring it back above $100.
It would be nice to have a tool that periodically saved the market value of our #hive-egine account; so that we could figure out if we are going up or down. I've been keeping a monthly recap, but it takes a lot of time to compile.
Looking at past recaps I see that, this time last year, my HE account was worth over $400. I decided at the time to move all of my HBD earnings into HE. I wanted to get my HE account over $1,000.
Wow, I missed my 2023 goal by 90%.
Of course, I was an idiot. I did not realize the devastating effect that the 20% interest on HBD would have on Hive Engine. The 20% interest on HBD stopped the flow of HIVE into HIVE Engine. This is easy to prove by following funds transferred to honey-swap. With inbound funds obliterated, HE simply collapsed.
BTW: I just looked through my SWAP.HIVE History for HE. I noticed that I transferred several hundred HIVE to HE at the beginning of the year; So my Hive-Engine losses is more significant than a simple drop from $400 to $100.
I was such a fool for believing in HE. @chekohler uses the tag #yiyl (You Invest You Lose) for situations.
Of course, I should stop wallowing in the fact that the Hive Witnesses willfully destroyed HE when they raised the interest rate on HBD to 20%.
Instead of complaining, I should learn to revel in HBD.
I pulled the chart below from the daily financial report produced by @arcange . The chart indicates that HBD is about to cross the 5 million mark. I suspect that there will be an end of the year sell off of HBD as people prepare for their taxes. I decided to sell the $209 HBD I built up during the year. I am converting my HBD to HIVE as I write.
The HBD interest rate is 20%. $5 million at 20% is $1 million. HBD interest compounds at 30%. The real interest paid should be slightly higher. I think it is safe to say that HIVE is on track to paying out more than a million in interest on HBD.
Hooray! Isn't that exciting!!!???
It is fun to collect interest at junk bond rates. I can see why private equity firms are eager to push the companies they control into debt.
Debt is cool.
All the cool companies have enormous piles of debt on their balance sheets.
The HIVE-algorithm uses HIVE to guarantee the value of HBD. As long as the market value of HBD stays below 30% of HIVE, Investors can convert their HBD to HIVE and cash out.
Ausbit Bank says that the HBD market cap is 6.358% . Ausbit has the wrong HIVE price.
I suspect we will see the HBD market cap surpass 10% of the HIVE market cap sometime early next year.
Anyway, since we guarantee the price of HBD with HIVE, it is safe to assume that most of the interest paid on HBD will be converted to HIVE at some point in the future.
Coingecko told me that the price of HIVE was $0.285.
Converting the 1 million HBD interest we will produce next year will produce 3.5 million HIVE.
Here is a fun figure: Currently an account needs 5500 HIVE to become a dolphin. It would take 636 accounts buying 5500 to consume the 3.5 million HIVE that we are likely to pay in HBD interest.
Of course we will need several thousand investors to soak up the HIVE the blockchain produces. HIVE needs to set its sight on attracting 2000 new dolphin accounts to absorb the interest on our coins.
We also need some suckers to come along and buy up the excess coins on HE.
So, for 2023, we need to concentrate on convincing several thousand members of the gullible public to invest 5500 on HIVE to absorb the interest.
This should be an easy sale.
We could tell prospective investors that we use the HIVE to guarantee a $5 loan at 20% interest.
Investors would be thrilled to hear the words 20% interest!
Well, I guess smart investors would shy away from HIVE on hearing this figure.
But we want gullible investors, not smart investors.
This final picture shows my account below $100. It had fallen to $88 earlier this week, but I didn't have the foresight to take the account's picture:
PS: I wonder how low HIVE will need to drop before the witnesses realize that they blundered when they raised the HBD to 20%?
My guess is that they won't correct the mistake until HIVE is trading under $0.15.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
