Dear Hivers,

2020 has passed and, hell, what a year! I'd like to make a short recap of my forecasts for 2020 (made here: ).

Politics

no. 1: Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic primary elections in the US.

clearly wrong.

no. 2: Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November 2020.

clearly wrong, too (though there are people who still can‘t believe it).

no. 3: Angela Merkel steps down as Chancellor - officially for reasons of personal health, unofficially due to internal party pressure (to give her successor time to present herself as "Chancellor Material").

wrong. I think COVID-19 gave her a boost for her last year in office.

no. 4: The Brexit actually happens.

rather true, the transition period ended on 31 December 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit).

no. 5: There will be no (relevant) trade deal between the US and China.

Not sure about that, but rather true.

Economy

no. 6: The dollar continues to rise, from the current 96.80 to over 100 (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy?mod=watchlist_ticker).

was partially true (high of 102.99 in late March), but dropped heavily afterwards. I still think the USD will rise far more. But I rate this forecast as wrong.

no. 7: The Dow Jones rises from the current $ 28,645 to over 33,000 (but could afterwards drop lower just as quickly).

wrong, the ATH was at 30‘637 (Corona wasn't on the table in december 2019).

no. 8: A large European bank (e.g. HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Santander) becomes insolvent and must be bailed out.

wrong

Crypto

no. 9: Bitcoin hits $ 30,000 during the year.

wrong, but it was a photo finish, with a high of 29‘200 USD on the last day of 2020.

no. 10: Bitcoin's dominance continues to increase, from currently 68.2% to over 75%.

wrong, but BTC‘s dominance increased from 68.2 to 70.5%.

no. 11: Steem rises from 78th place to the top 50 again (https://coinmarketcap.com/).

wrong. Due to the hijacking of Steem, we now have Hive 😀. If I remember correctly Hive was temporarily in the top 50. Currently it's not, but I remain confident we will see Hive in the top 50.

no. 12: Steem reaches 2 million accounts in total (currently 1.35 million) - very daring, I know ...

I am not sure about that, but I think there are still less than 2 million Hive accounts.

Others

no. 13: Croatia will win the European football championship.

This event was cancelled.

no. 14: Protests / demonstrations continue to increase in number and violence (Hong Kong, Yellow Vest Movement, etc.)

True, especially Black Lives Matter and anti-government protests in France.

no. 15: I will continue to accumulate bitcoins and Steems (stacking sats) and become an Orca.

True (but a forecast I could enforce).

So, in summary out of 15 I have 10 wrong, 4 correct and 1 (no. 12) uncertain.

7 new forecasts for 2021:

Bitcoin will surpass 100‘000 USD before end of 2021.
The S&P500 will end 2021 lower than it is today (3‘756).
Hive will surpass 1 USD before end of 2021.
The winner of the 2021 German federal election (Bundestagswahl) and the new Chancellor will be Friedrich Merz.
The dollar (DXY https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY) will rise in 2021, from the current 90 to over 100.
A large European bank (e.g. HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Santander) becomes insolvent and must be bailed out.
A government debt/ currency crisis will arise, either in China or Turkey or Italy or Brazil.

My personal statistics on Hive for 2020 and goals for 2021:

increased my stake from 41‘000 to 150‘000 (thanks to the stupid and criminal actions of Justin Sun and the resulting hard fork of Steem to Hive, I could dump my Steems and accumulate a lot more Hive 😍).
wrote 56 posts (6 posts earning a payout of >10 USD, the highest-paid was this: ).
777 followers
goals for 2021: 180‘000 Hive Power, at least 52 posts, 1‘000 followers

I wish you a great new year, with good health and a lot of success. Hive on, zuerich