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The Next Bull Run Will Be Liquidity Driven

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@chekohler
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Hey Jesspeculators

Since the halving has come and gone, the hype has moved along with it and we're all back to where we were and prices haven't changed all that much. What we don't realise is that the stock to flow is already starting to take shape and as you see the 9K range-bound maintain, its a strong indication that buyers are coming in at a steady pace to gobble up new BTC.

As someone with 1 coiner aspirations, I see this race against time and I'm trying my best to eat away at that 0.38 I need to hit 1 coin status.

What I thought would be a long term play for myself is starting to feel like something I need to hurry up and sort out or miss the bus. I still regularly eat at it with DCA'ing every month but where I think the biggest play will come in is from a liquidity issue in cryptocurrency as a whole.

A minor miner dump

As I mentioned earlier the halving has come and gone and post halving a few miners called it quits, sold on and shipped out. Their coin dump was immediately gobbled up by the market and we soldiered on, in previous years the miner coin dump would have had a greater effect, but it seems they're starting to have less effect on the market as newly minted BTC is on a rapid decline.

Liquidity drying up

More and more people are starting to see BTC as a store of value asset and a non-correlated asset, as the unrest continues and lockdown persist, people are going to look for alternative stores of wealth. As more BTC is picked up by HODLers they squeeze the speculator pool and with so little coming in from miner minting, it will eventually trigger a bull run.

The stock to flow model should kick in around 14 - 18 months regardless of what happens and this run could come even earlier depending on what happens to economies on the edge.

Once the speculator and maker market for BTC gets squeezed people are going to look for liquidity elsewhere.

Altcoin alternatives

This is where altcoins come in and where their various monetary policies start to play out in interesting game theory. People have firstly got a psychological bias towards wholes over fractions, apart from hardcore BTC HODL'rs who are used to working in satoshi decimals the rest of the world wants whole numbers.

This is why they'll be jumping on any asset that can get a hold of that's a whole of something, like buying 10 ETH or a whole bunch fo XRP regardless of the fundamentals.

What will happen here though is staking coins and dPOS chain coins that already lock up their coins regardless of HODL'rs will see their coin prices pump insanely as slippage kicks in to try and get into these various tiny markets.

This is where I foresee picking up my whole coin, as value is forced into these smaller coins the multiples move up at insane rates.

While BTC's next run could be spectacular, there will be alts that are going to shoot up 200, 300, 500 even 10 000% easy without ever developing anything new.

If I look at the appetite for stocks at the moment, I can only see BTC's new stock to flow ratio pulling in more investors, once the BTC and first few altcoin start to run, you best believe it's going to be complete chaos.

I've already set positions in a few smaller cap coins I feel will fall into this category and look forward to dumping those bags and grabbing some sweet satoshis.

Have your say

What do you good people of HIVE think? Will you be ready for the next bull run?

So have at it my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, comment "I am a Jessie."

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