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Splinterlands: Will DEC sky it when Untamed comes out?

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exyle
@exyle
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I've been thinking about this for a while.

When the new packs for Splinterlands come out, I expect, most will open those packs with potions.

Potions need to be bought with DEC.

It takes 45k DEC to get the +100% legendary chance and the +100 gold foil chance potions for 500 cards.

That's 45K DEC for every 100 packs.

Currently, I can find 45k Untamed pack tokens in Steem-Engine.

But after asking around in the Maverick channel the estimate will be closer to 175k Untamed packs (from a total of 1,5 million) that will be given to players in 2-3 weeks from now.

That's unsurprising really considering the Kickstarter raised 3 hundred thousand dollars.

How much DEC do we need for all those packs?

(175,000 packs / 100 packs) * 45K DEC = 78,75 million DEC.

Compared to the total current supply (93 million) of DEC that is a lot!

top 20 DEC holders

There are some unforeseen factors though.

175,000 packs will create 875,000 Untamed cards.

Some of those might be burned for DEC increasing the DEC supply.

I'm not sure how to calculate that in.

Another unforeseen factor can be the STEEM price.

DEC has proven to be pretty stable vs STEEM (DEC going up with STEEM going down).

I'm assuming this also will happen the other way around.

STEEM can go up and that would most likely mean DEC going down vs STEEM.

And in that case, buying DEC can prove a costly mistake.

It's an interesting dynamic.

Another factor can, of course, be that pack owners will simply open the packs without potions. It's unlikely but could happen.

Conclusion

Because I'm pretty convinced the demand for DEC will go up I made sure I have a decent amount of it but I am also a little bit fearful to get more because of the mentioned unforeseen factors.

We should know more in 2 -3 weeks.

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.