The Wildest Bitcoin Predictions of the Last 2 Years
It’s no secret in the world of cryptocurrency that eccentric billionaire John McAfee, founder of the world’s first commercial antivirus software, is bullish on Bitcoin. His now famous tweet mocking a $400,000 Bitcoin price prediction within two years, itself a bit outlandish, has become something of a legend. McAfee predicted the king of crypto’s price will hit $1 million by December 31, 2020. Initially, he predicted half a million by that date, and tweeted that he'd eat his manhood if it didn't. I guess he's preparing right now for the televised munching.
The $400,000 number comes from a tweet by @GalaxyBTC in which the analyst predicts BTC to go over $330,000 by the end of 2021.
Image from @galaxyBTC on Twitter
While McAfee may be mad, he’s not afraid to double-down on his prediction. Not only that, he’s managed to get the full support of the crypto time traveler, who “has never been wrong” according to the Big Mac. But these aren’t the only wild predictions this year on the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In fact, market is buzzing with anticipation over another bull run. Check out these other extreme predictions on future crypto prices.
If It Isn’t a Bull, It’s a Bear
Not so outlandish in this day of wild volatility, one crypto analyst that goes by the name of Financial Survivalism predicted on June 9, 2019 that if Bitcoin fell below $7,500, it would continue to $6,800. Bitcoin was trading close to $7,600 at the time after rising past $8,000. It then went above $9,000 again after hitting a low of $7,571.47 the same day as the prediction. It did eventually drop to $6,617.17, on November 25, 2019.
From CoinMarketCap.
One of the more interesting bearish predictions I’ve seen lately is one from venture capitalist Jason Calacanis and founder of Inside.com. Calacanis said recently that there is a 70 percent chance that Bitcoin will be worth $500 or less in two years. His 30 percent hedge is that it will “trade at the current price or more.” There’s a small chance, he said, that BTC will fly up to $100,000 in a couple of years. Well, he’s no John McAfee, that’s for sure.
We can count BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes among the bears, as well. He said late last year that there will not be a bull run this year and predicted Bitcoin could fall as low as $2,000.
More recently, even though the Bitcoin price has risen 100 percent since January, a couple of bears have come out and said it hasn't hit bottom. One says it will drop to the low-5,000s, and another predicts $2,700 around the time of Bitcoin's next halving.
From CoinDiligent
While the bears may seem off their rockers, it’s the bulls that seem a bit whacky to me.
The Crypto Bulls Are Really Bullish
While there are bearish sentiments regarding Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies in general, they’re mostly from the same old naysayers. The more interesting price predictions are coming from the bulls. It seems that John McAfee–eccentricities aside–isn’t the only crypto evangelist deadset on a $1 million Bitcoin.
Wences Casares, a PayPal board member and Xapo chief operating officer, also touts the $1 million valuation for the leading cryptocurrency. But he’s looking at seven to 10 years out, not two.
Another advocate for the $1 million BTC price in a decade is Julian Hosp, a crypto analyst who has written a book about cryptocurrencies. Hosp is using an analysis called stock-to-flow ratio to predict Bitcoin’s price. The ratio calculates the current supply divided by the Bitcoin produced each year. This isn’t that hard since the upper limit of Bitcoin’s supply is 21 million and future mining production can be judged based on past production. However, a halving in 2020, he says, will cut block rewards for miners and boost the price of Bitcoin from $100,000 to $300,000, so he sees BTC already hitting the six-figure mark, at the latest, by some time next year. Hosp says the stock-to-flow ratio is 95 percent accurate.
When Bitcoin was still trading at $3,500 earlier this year, Poolin Co-founder Zhu Fa predicted Bitcoin could hit 5 million Chinese yuan (almost $740,000 USD) during its next bull run. He didn’t say when that would be exactly, but he noted it would beat Bitcoin’s last bull run as the coin will stabilize.
Of course, there are also the conservative predictions of $20,000 and $25,000 for Bitcoin by 2020. Not many would argue with those.
Then there are those stuck between the highs and the lows. Take Tom Lee, of Fundstrat, for instance. His prediction is a $36,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2019. Fundstrat’s quant analyst Sam Doctor lays it out nice and clean in the following chart.
From @CryptoSamDoctor on Twitter
In May of last year, Brave New Coin CEO Fran Strajnar predicted Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by January 1, 2020. Halfway through December 2019, he’s running out of time.
Naeem Aslam, of Think Markets, thinks Bitcoin could hit $400,000 on the next bull run. He doesn’t say when that is, exactly, but he’s pretty clear that he believes it’s likely to happen. John Pfeffer made a $700,000 pronouncement at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York last year, a prediction that puts him in the Zhu Fa-John McAfee range. Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the Gemini exchange, near the beginning of the 2018 bear run, predicted $320,000 for Bitcoin within a decade. He went on to say that anyone who can’t see it has no imagination. BTCC Co-founder Bobby Lee says $333,000 by December 2021.
It seems everyone has an opinion on the price of Bitcoin, and most of them are optimistic. This roundup would be incomplete without mentioning Tim Draper’s $250,000 prediction. He sees Bitcoin rising to a quarter million by 2023.
Where Bitcoin will go from here is anyone’s guess, but you can count me among the bulls. It's not that it's going to just shoot up like a rocket. It will remain wavering as it always has, but I expect a bull run around the time of the next halving.
Conclusion
When it comes to altcoins, most of the price predictions are fairly reasonable. It seems analysts aren’t as quick to make wild claims for the followers of the pack, as it is general wisdom that the altcoins follow Bitcoin in price. When BTC goes up, so go the rest. When BTC falls, so do most of the other coins and tokens. In this world of crazy volatility, traders and investors would do well to do their own due diligence. While it’s interesting to listen to myriad voices claiming sky high BTC or groundshattering plummeters in digital coin, it’s best to expect wild fluctuations that could lead to new highs and may lead to new lows. Either way, what’s happening in the crypto markets from day to day is interesting, to say the least.
A version of this story first appeared at Blockchain Times.
Cryptocracy: Crypto news for less than the price of a latte.
