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UC Berkeley study says clean grid possible by 2035

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Mr. Crypto Lemon 🍋
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UC Berkeley study says clean grid possible by 2035 (greentechmedia)

A study just published by UC Berkeley & GridLab estimates that it will be economically feasible for the US to have a largely renewable electricity grid as soon as 2035.**

  • The study uses updated costs for wind, solar & batteries, and assumes that renewables make up 90% of generation capacity, with the remaining 10% from gas (used to balance generation volatility)
  • Under this scenario all coal plants will be retired by 2035 & no new gas plants will need to be built.
  • The analysis also suggests that previous estimates of a requirement for billions of $ of spending on a continent wide transmission system are no longer correct. They estimate that with wind & solar costs falling fast, regional grids will be viable, reducing the need for transmission capex.

Analysis and Comments

Analysts and investors believe that the transition would be slow (multi decade), partly because of cost issues but additionally because of the challenges of grid balancing & stability as more renewables are added plus an element of regulatory/political/corporate inertia**.

  • The old 2050 “target” mentioned in the report is probably a fair representation of current broader consensus. Given this the Berkeley study is interesting on two counts.
    The first and obvious one is around the rapidly falling cost of the technology & the impact this will have on simplifying and enabling grid stability at higher levels of renewable generation**. The second is the requirement for parallel political action.

  • This is a US report, and the situation is somewhat different in Europe. Despite these differences the points they make in their adjunct report rewiring the US for economic recovery are still very valid. There is a list of political actions required if the 2035 date is to be achieved.

  • The European political will is largely there, as evidenced by the recent EU Green deal etc, recent actions post the COVID crisis do suggest conflicting priorities EU states support plan to cut airlines climate obligations (climate home news)

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