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A brief analysis on Silver: What to expect and why

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Recently I covered an article about Gold; and today I'll be covering a brief one about Silver!

This is one of my most favorite metals, and I do believe its definitely worth holding, because of a lot of reasons, and I'm going to cover one of them today. And believe me or not, its just the tip of the iceberg! There's much more than this.

I'll of course recommend holding the actual physical Silver bars/coins/assets, instead of bonds/futures. They say the same thing about Bitcoin as well: "Not your keys, not your Bitcoin" :P So Just like holding Bitcoin in your hardware wallet, which is disconnected from the internet is the safest option to store it, here also, having possession of the physical silver is the safest option to store it IMO.

I'll suggest you to take a look at the historical price of Silver, and Gold, and play with it and check out the various options on charts, like inflation adjusted, recessions, etc, by going to the following link: https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart And stay tuned for another article: "Why Silver is very much undervalued" in one of my future posts! :)


Disclaimer: I'm not a certified financial advisor, and even though I've been trading for quite a few years, I urge people reading this, and my other posts to #dyor (Do your own research) before taking any decisions! Of course I'm going to help you out if you have some queries, so feel free to let me know in the comments, or on twitter :)

So lets jump on to the charts!


Chart: Silver/USD, 1W (Wyckoff Theory)

Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/5kXvTUCi/

If you are aware of the Wyckoff theory, you may go ahead and draw some link to this chart above! In case you want to know more, you can check out the Stockchart's blog here: https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method


Looking at the charts, we can see, the price of Silver dumped from an all time high of almost $49.25, back in April, 2011, to nearly $13.8, somewhere around December 2014.

This observation, as per the chart can be classified as the "Selling Climax", and by this time, most of the miners, and holders would have capitulated. (sounds similar?) Starting from December 2014, we had a major relief rally from the local lows to claim a spot in the $20 zone, back in April, 2016.
But soon, the price failed to sustain that range, and has since then been trading in between the range of $13-20, for the last 6 years.

The price action around March 2020 is self explanatory, and it comes around a time when the whole world was under the panic of Covid19.

This is what, as per the observation of the chart, formed the "Spring" of the famous Wyckoff theory.

As per the laws of supply and demand, technically, we are seeing an accumulation phase for the last 6 years, and the current economic turmoil, is only going to fuel the accumulation more, till the day it breaks out of this range, and perhaps form an all time high. (but its a bit too early to tell now).

Note: I feel the Phase C happened just a bit too fast, and was very reactive in nature!

Let's see what happens in the corresponding phases. Time will tell :)


Chart: Silver/USD, 1W, (A bit zoomed out, S/R)

Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/aAlhhsFr/

Well, the chart may not speak much, but we successfully did a retest of the historical support zone since 2005-2006 :)

Even though I expected that it should have reached $8.33-ish levels for a more solid ground, I personally think we already made a solid recovery, and unless we see any other black swan events, we are not going there!



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