Market Watch: $13k is the new normal.
I'm having EXTREME flashbacks to my Bitcoin Has Never Been Worth More Than It Is Right Now post.
That was over a year ago summer 2019.
Apparently I used Busy app to store my picture and the link is broken. Allow me to fish it out of my archive.
So back then Bitcoin was basically going nuts over the whole Bakkt pump/dump scenario and a "flood" of institutional money that 'surprisingly' never materialized. I predicted as such and 'guaranteed' that Bitcoin would at least return to this $7500 level. That's exactly what happened a few months later in late September (one of the best months to buy Bitcoin).
Bitcoin pulled one even better at the end of the year and fully returned to the doubling curve at the exact $6400 level.
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 | $12800 | $25600 | $51200 |
Very impressive indeed!
How can Bitcoin be simultaneously so easy yet so hard to predict? Just lucky I guess.
In any case...
Like I said, I'm having flashbacks regarding this whole concept of: "Bitcoin has never been worth more than it is right now." No matter how high Bitcoin spikes in November and December, I'm pretty sure we're going to return to this $13k level for confirmation before the mega-bull-run begins in 2021.
Doesn't matter if Bitcoin spikes to $20k, $30k, or $40k, no matter what happens I think a crash back down to this confirmation level is likely. Trade very carefully when Bitcoin is valued higher than the literal exponential doubling curve. I feel like that should be obvious but it's totally not. FOMO strong. No matter how many gains we make the market always gets greedy and wants more more more.
Napkin math achievement.
2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13867 | $14933 | $16000 | $17067 | $18133 | $19200 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20267 | $21333 | $22400 | $23467 | $24533 | $25600 |
This is the new doubling curve from a month to month basis in 2021.
Notice anything?
The curve is already higher in January than it is today (barley).
According to the curve, buying at this level is still a safe bet even after going x3+ due to the COVID discount in March that sent us spiraling to $4k (half the curve's value).
How can I make the claim that Bitcoin is a really good deal right now when it was trading for $4k in March? Again, I feel like that should be obvious; the entire landscape has changed.
Corporations putting Bitcoin on their RESERVES balance sheets
(The ultimate HODL play).
- Bitcoin Halving already has 5 months of liquidity drain under its belt.
- Long-standing Bitcoin bears have publicly flipped bullish including JP Morgan and Paypal.
- 20% of all USD was minted this year.
There are so many things that have happened since March I wouldn't be able to list them all. Remember the extreme fear in the market even when Bitcoin was dirt cheap at $4k? Tons of analysts eying $1000 and other ridiculous numbers. My stance is simple: $13k Bitcoin today is a better deal than $4k Bitcoin just seven months ago. That's pretty crazy when you think about it. Welcome to bull territory.
Hive is a sad panda.
On the Hive side of this equation users are still selling down to the 13 cent level seemingly regardless of the gains Bitcoin is making. We've got this small buy wall at the 1000 sats level on Bittrex and that's about it. Hive is already trading slightly below that on Binance and Huobi with no buy walls to speak of. Sad times.
Unfortunately, Hive bulls have a way of FOMOing pretty hard and burning out quick long before the network is finished dumping coins. By the time buying pressure vanishes, users are still selling off their rewards as the slow trend of downward pressure continues. Note to self: hold more Bitcoin reserves for moments like this.
This trend could reverse in any instant.
Our market can turn on a dime. I expect that when Bitcoin hits all time highs again market psychology will be totally different, and some of the burnt out Hive bulls may be reinvigorated. No promises. We've also seen Bitcoin make a run, this network stays flat, and then when the Bitcoin dump comes we get railed all over again. However, I think the hardcore support at 10 cents will hold no matter what happens. We've earned that much at least.
LEO
The LEO market is still doing well no matter how you slice it when considering the wLEO hack fiasco. Unfortunately, one of the only ways to sell LEO without wLEO is to go through Hive, which puts further downward pressure on Hive. Hive users that are FOMOing into LEO are also theoretically putting downward pressure on Hive as they dump it for LEO (assuming the LEO sellers are cashing out).
I'm pretty excited that Khal is pushing so hard to get wLEO back onto the market because I'm fairly certain the ETH pump hasn't even started yet and we may be able to come in clutch at the last second and ride those coattails to victory. Apparently we may be implementing a Geyser distribution model that rewards Uniswap LP users more depending on the time spent inside the pool, so that should be interesting. I haven't decided if I'll powerdown to take part in that, as I'm sort of liking my massive 70k stake and 10+ LEO upvote, but we'll see.
Other projects I expect to perform well:
- Link MKR (Maker) UNI (Uniswap)
- BNB (Binance)
- LTC (Litecoin)
- XMR (Monero)
I don't have any stake in these projects anymore but I still think they will do quite well. Traditionally BNB does really really well and ends up crashing late, giving an opportunity to dump while the rest of the market is hitting the mountain.
Truthfully, I think most projects are going to perform well over the next year. That's just the name of the game when it comes to the fourth year of the Bitcoin bull market. Lot of new money will get thrown around. Mindsets change during all time highs. Easy come, easy go.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
