Fearless Prediction - STEEM price won't tank after the HF - Neither will HIVE.

Time for possibly an unpopular opinion/fearless prediction/foolish prognostication. Definitely, absolutely not financial advice.

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STEEM price will hold up quite well in the days after the fork.

Why?

• Justin Sun and some allies are looking for a win. He won't get HIVE airdrop for Steemit stake, but he will get some from exchange funds - at least 3+ million, plus however much he has put in during this current pump.
• He has plenty of money to support STEEM price and buy more as future Hivers dump STEEM.
• He will see a solid STEEM price as a marketing tool/p.r. win.
• His ego won't allow for HIVE to be worth more than STEEM.

Thus massive buy support for STEEM

HIVE price will also do well.

Why?

• Lots of pissed of former Steemians want to dump it as soon as HIVE fork happens. Big sell STEEM, buy HIVE pressure.
• I don't think Sun will sell his liquid HIVE from exchanges. Wouldn't be surprised if he staked it to play with HIVE governance for a bit - Witness vote etc.
• Lots of community want HIVE to work - wont be sellers.
• OG witnesses and Community leaders have put a lot into getting HIVE running - will be sellers of STEEM and buyers of HIVE with a point to prove.

Win/Win right?

Short term maybe, long term who knows.

What could go wrong with this theory?

If I am wrong and Sun does Dump HIVE asap, then this theory won't play out.

Either way, I see STEEM holding up ok in the short term.

Please don't take this as financial advice - I'm just guessing, and just putting this on the blockchain so I can either say "I told you so" or "shit, I got that wrong" in a few days time.

Cheers,

JK.

Posted via Steemleo