Monero (XMR) Next Destination $380 | XMR Long Term Analysis

The formation of Wedge:

On the long term weekly chart the Monero has started the formation of a wedge pattern. Since then it has been nicely hitting the support and resistance levels of this wedge pattern. At this time it can be easily observed that after the drop of March 2020 even though the price action has hit the spike beyond the support but finally it is retraced back and re-gained the value upto 161%.

But there are some certain bearish signals appeared therefore I am not expecting very soon break out from this pattern. If we take a closer look at the Bollinger bands indicator then it can be easily noticed that the upper bands of the bollinger bands is below the resistance of this wedge. If the price action will be reached at this level then the Bollinger bands won’t let the priceline of XMR to break out. And it will play a role of a strong hurdle, moreover after placing the volume profile on the complete price action moving within this wedge pattern if can be also found that the trader’s interest is up to $89. That is at the resistance level and above that level we have very weak interest of the traders. Therefore in order to break out we need to have the trader’s interest developed above the resistance of this wedge pattern.

Here we have one more indicator that is very much important that is the point of control of the volume profile. This POC is at $48 therefore this point of control can pull back the priceline towards itself at any time but once the traders interest will be developed above the resistance of this wedge pattern then the point of control of this volume profile will be also moved up. And if that will happen then XMR will have more strong chances to have a powerful breakout.

The combination of these indicators is showing weak bearish signals:

If we place the stochastic and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the momentum indicators then we can notice that this time the movement of the price action of XMR is different from the previous moves that the Monero has been making withing this wedge pattern. For example if we see in the month of December then it can be easily observed that 1st MACD turned weak bearish from strong bearish then we received the bull cross from stochastic indicator and then momentum also turned weak bearish and the price action turned strong bullish and reached at the resistance of the pattern. After that we can see that in the month of Jun 2019 the stochastic gave bear cross and the MACD turned weak bullish and the momentum also turned weak bullish then priceline of XMR moved down again and reached the support of this pattern. Then in the month of December 2019 we can again observe that that MACD turned weak bearish and the momentum was already weak bearish and in the month of January finally we received a clear bull cross by the stochastic indicator then again the priceline started strong bullish rally and reached up to the resistance of this wedge. Then again in the month of Feb 2020 the stochastic gave the bear cross and the MACD also turned weak bullish and at the end of March 2020 the momentum also turned weak bullish then priceline drpped down and reached at the support. So these moves are showing that the movement of the XMR within this wedge is very much synchronized with the signals of these 3 indicators. But time if we take a closer look at the movement and these indicators then we can notice that 1st the MACD turned weak bearish and the stochastic also gave the bull cross but so far the momentum indicator is ignoring these bullish signals of stochastic and MACD. And it is still giving the strong bearish signals. Therefore we cannot expect that the priceline will be reached at the resistance of this pattern to make an attempt for the breakout unless the momentum indicator will also be turned bullish.

The support and resistance level:

If we switch daily chart then it can be easily seen that after 17th March when the price acton turned bullish first it broke out the resistance level at $44 and then re-tested this resistance as support and after successful re-test the price action took another powerful bullish divergence. Then it faced some resistance at $58.42 but finally the priceline broke out this resistance. Now currenty the Monero is re-testing the previous resistance as a support at $58.42. After successful re-test of this resistance as support we will be confirmed that the priceline of XLM has finally broke out this resistance. Because this level has been working as a strong support and resistance level for the priceline of XMR since December 2018.

Moving averages:

If we watch the movement of the simple moving averages on the daily chart then after the strong bearish trend in the month of March the price action started the bullish rally. Then it has broken out all the simple moving averages with the time period of 50, 25,200 and 100. And after breaking out every moving average it has been re-testing the previous resistance of moving average as support and after every successful re-test the priceline moved up to break out the next simple moving average. At this time we can see that the priceline has broken out the 200 and 100 simple moving averages on one go. And now the priceline is retesting the 100 and 200 simple moving averages at the same time. Today a very strong bearish candle stick is appeared. And the 100 simple moving average is likely to be broken down and if the priceline will be closed below the 100 simple moving average then there will be more chances that it will break down the 200 SMA as well. If the 200 SMA will be broken down then the priceline can very easily breakdown the 25 and 50 simple moving averages. Therefore in order to continue the rally the 200 simple moving average shouldn’t be broken down.

A very big bullish BAT pattern:

Now I woud like to recall a very big bullish BAT pattern that is formed on the monthly chart. And we can see that since October 2018 the priceline has entered in the potential reversal zone of this pattern. We can also observe a very small spinning candlestick that was appeared in the month of March 2019 that was completely opened and closed below this potential reversal zone level. But in very next candlestick it was retraced back in this PRZ level. Recently again in the month of March 2020 have witnessed a very long bearish spike beyond the potential reversal zone. But in the very next candlestick the priceline has been retraced back in this PRZ level.

The XMR’s final resistance level is $380 that is also in the Fibonacci projection area or the selll zone of this BAT patter. This is the Fibonacci projection of A to D leg. Therefore the price action once the price action will be entered in the potential sell zone then it can also make an attempt to break out the $380 resistance. So this bit bullish BAT pattern can produce upto 560% big gains.

Bullish Crab Move:

In the meanwhile I would like to recall another harmonic bullish Crab pattern that was formed in the month of March 2020 by the price action of XMR. I have published this harmonic move in my post of 17th of March. And as per Fibonacci sequence of bullish Crab the priceline started a powerful bullish rally and produced more than 133% gains. This Crab pattern was the main reason that pushed back the priceline in the potential reversal zone of the big bullish BAT pattern that has been formed on the monthly chart.

Bullish Crab before execution:

Bullish Crab after execution:

Conclusion:

If the supports on the daily chart will be broken down then the Monero can start bearish rally on short term and mid-term. But on the long term the XMR can turn strong bullish at any time for up to 560% big gains and can hit the $380 long term resistance.

Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.

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