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Trends in Hive Distribution - An Ever Decreasing Orca Bubble...?

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@revisesociology
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The distribution of Hive Power has become more equal over the last month, according to a comparison of @argange's most excellent statistics, which show us distribution levels my MVEST and by number of accounts, and by all accounts and active accounts.

Below I look at trends in distribution from May 1st 2020 to May 31st 2020, based on all MVESTs and all users.

Looking at distribution based on all MVESTS should give us the most valid picture of how actual 'power' on hive is distributed. While <50K/ 150K MVESTS register as 'active', 133.893 MVESTs (down from 140K on 1st April)) are presently voting for the current number one witness (@gtg), which is around 90% of total MVESTs.

This tells us that 90% of MVESTS are actively deployed (rather than dormant because of lost keys etc.), even if the users who control it aren't actively using it to make transactions on a daily basis.

The Hive per Vests ratio was 0.00051350 on May 1st (0005123 on 1st April) (Hiveblocks.com)

This analysis doesn't take account of the 80 Million liquid HIVE currently not staked in the DAO.

Trends in distribution by MVEST levels

1st of May 2020

31st of May 2020

Level% of total MVESTS 1st April% of total MVESTS 31st May
Whales42.4%36.31%
Orcas26.09%29.46%
Dolphins18.04%19.07%
Minnows8.89%9.97%
Redfish4.58%5.19%

The share of total MVESTS held by Whale accounts has decreased dramatically by just over 6% in the last month, with Orcas increasing by 3.5%, Minnows and Dolphins picking up 1% each and Redfish 0.5%.

I probably wouldn't read too much into this, it's probably just the exchange Power Downs working their way through!

Trends in distribution by number of accounts

I decided to included this just for reference too!

1st of May 2020

31st of May 2020

LevelNo. of accounts 1st MayNo. of accounts 31st May
Whales3533
Orcas311311
Dolphins20191904
Minnows91569072
Redfish13684721375884

One less whale account, the same amount of Orcas, 200 fewer Dolphins and almost 100 fewer minnows accounts, seems like 10% of lower level accounts Powering Down and no one new coming through to take their place!

Commentary/ Analysis

The big shift here is the increasing amount of stake vested to Orca accounts - the number remain the same, but the average stake increases - and I guess the same can be said for both Dolphins and Minnows too - where there is more stake overall, but spread between fewer accounts.

So while this means there is greater equality when we look at these mid-level accounts compared to whales, there are reducing numbers of people the mid-level stake is split between.

I guess this should make for more effective democracy - it's easier to co-ordinate fewer people each with a larger stake rather than more people with smaller stakes.

However, it doesn't bode well for the growth of the platform!

This also confirms the feeling of I've had of Hive becoming reduced to a handful of largish accounts posting and getting nice rewards for fairly mediocre posts - A sort of decreasing Dolphin and Orca Bubble.

If that doesn't changes, we'll be more equal and all of us poorer!

Sources:

May 1 statistics

May 31st statistics