Black swans and loaded dice

in LeoFinance •  23 days ago 

I think by now everyone knows what a black swan event is, an event that comes as a surprise, has a major impact and then gets rationalized after the fact, as if it was expected. Unexpected events that might qualify are the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers in New York, or the dotcom meltdown, the Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown - Bitcoin?

Has it had a large enough impact yet?

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In comparison to the others, perhaps not - but it is just getting started and much like the 9/11 attacks in 2001, the knock on effects are going to be very, very large and wide ranging. Economically, Bitcoin hasn't made too much of a financial gain to concern the sector, but with the continued growth and expansion of the blockchain and cryptocurrency usecases, it is going to be one of those slow burners that is going to seep into the cracks, expand and tear the outdated infrastructure down to the foundations.

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Black swan events are unpredictable by nature and they say "don't try to predict the unpredictable" as there are only really two ways to do so. Firstly - get lucky. That isn't predictive. Secondly, it is to invest very wide and hope that one of the investments gets the massive bump, which is again, not very predictive - however, it is possible under the right conditions.

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The idea of spreading investments wide is like "always bet on black" in roulette, hoping that you will beat the odds and win more spins on the black side of the 50 percent than the red. It isn't predictive, but the odds are better than a straight number win. Pretty much though, the House always wins - otherwise, they wouldn't play the game. Casinos play the predictable odds. Always.

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But, here we are on Hive and like I have said before, the investment opportunity is much like the strategy that covers the board, as investing into Hive Power is investing into every other game being played - if one strikes it big, all do and the more games that get created, the higher the chance that one will be successful. While we can take guesses at which application will be the one that lands a massive hit, it really is an unknown, as for one reason or another, it could be very unexpected. For example, we might look at it from a social media perspective or gaming, but it could very well be an app that supports a background business function that gets the traction, or something that supports other blockchains.

It doesn't really matter what it is though, as once that first major hit is made, the next and the next will follow and then, the flood will start. While internally that hit application might not be a black swan even as we are working toward it, externally it might come as quite a surprise to various industries that don't even have blockchains on their radar.

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Speaking of working toward it, I used an analogy of a lottery today and how maybe they are so popular because people don't want to do the work. The reply was about Hive not being a lottery - but it is. All of life is a lottery. However, through our behaviors, we can affect the outcomes, nudge them, support direction, work toward one point, rather than another. We can load the dice.

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In this case, loading the dice isn't cheating, it means that we can affect our own future through participating in it and the decisions we make now will influence our outcomes in the future - we can narrow down the number range to give ourselves a better chance of winning. This isn't predictive of the future, but it constrains the borders a little more.

It is said, the best way to predict the future is to create it, and through what we are doing here, we are creating the future. Whether it is a healthy and successful future is yet to be seen, but at the very least, we have a very good opportunity to create something that not only holds a large amount of value for current participants, but also for the future ones also.

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In most cases, investment into a company's stock doesn't come with much decision making power, let alone the ability to significantly push direction, that is reserved for owners. Here on Hive, we are all staked owners to some degree and even with no stake, anyone could come in and develop that killer dApp that takes Hive through every ceiling we have imagined thus far.

Why would a developer not go it alone instead? Because not only is it immediate access to a community invested in the success of applications built here, Hive gives their second, third and every other application they will create an immediate market and a proven track record to rely upon - incubation to domination. And each success of any size can splinter into multiple attempts and more successes.

We don't really know where this is all going to lead and success is far from certain, but because of the mechanisms involved, it is our participation and the way we negotiate the challenges that arise which will influence our future. And when we get there, there will be a lot of people who will use their hindsight to rationalize just how it all came about -

as if they predicted it.

If that eventuality does happen, you will know for sure those who at least threw their hat in the ring - because they won't be short for a dollar HIVE.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

If you don't back your own belief, do you believe it at all?

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My city must be a black swan event as it's our state bird ;D I don't know if we have white ones, I don't remember seeing any.

Aaaaahhhh loookit the cygnets so cute XD

3000km across a desert - definitely a blackswan city :D

cygnets

Damn it - I am losing my vocabulary in Finland...

I agree with creating your own future. It is this the only thing we can do in this lottery thing called life. Have a proactive go getter attitude. You don't get to catch fish if you are afraid of getting your clothes wet.

You don't get to catch fish if you are afraid of getting your clothes wet.

I haven't heard this saying before - I like it!

A lot of people wait passively for something to happen, without ever getting a ball rolling.

It is a romanian saying, quite popular.Sitting passively will only get you watching those who take the win and risk. I think it is better to have courage and try rather than sit like a stone pretending this is how it's done

You don't get to catch fish if you are afraid of getting your clothes wet.

Uhm... I think we should try fish naked lotta more often!! };)

It is a romanian saying, quite popular.

Mine too!! :)

Hahha. It is a good saying, and it speaks the truth

"The Truth" An ancient saying and mandate!! :D

😅😅😅😅

Those swans are a lovely feathered friends family.

I have never seen the ugly ducklings before - they are really cute :)

... investing into Hive Power is investing into every other game being played - if one strikes it big, all do ...

HP is pretty key, but I do like to get involved with as much else as possible too. LEO/Splinterlands success would be good for HP/Hive, but likely off the charts for the app/game that does the job.

It takes one killer app and everything changes. This is what the development fund should be developing - scalability and application developments that heavily focus on onboarding users/players/audience.

I agree.

Would also like some marketing/advertising based around consumer rewards and Splinterlands (or whatever games are doing well).

I need more hats for the ring throwing ;0)

Do berets count as hats yet?

For example, we might look at it from a social media perspective or gaming, but it could very well be an app that supports a background business function that gets the traction, or something that supports other blockchains.

The longer I spend here, the more am accepting the fact that steemit(now hive) may not make it as the revolutionary blockchain based social media platform I had hoped. I still believe a breakthrough would come, and like you've pointed out, it might just be from an angle we don't expect

The social media side of things is only one aspect of it, there is much more. The blockchain supports independent business models while still having them connected to the chain. Splinterlands is probably the best example at the moment, but it could be literally any type of revenue generating business. Then, there are all the secondary services that support the rest as they arrive.

Very Resourceful!

Thanks