Plucking Strings of Gold

As it is Friday and it has been a long week of lots of kinds of things - I thought I would be able to spend a few minutes to dream a little about an end of year parabolic upward run on the markets. I don't know what "enough" would be, but if everything went 5-10x, that would likely be enough - if I was to sell everything at the top.

But who does that?

I used to think in terms of "lump sums" of profits, but I am definitely more partial to the hold and earn on yield these days, as I feel that it will be more rewarding in several ways in the longrun.

Perhaps I am getting old.

This doesn't mean not selling anything of course, but I would like to have that residual income to buy the dips and if possible, earn on what I hold so that through the dips I am okay, as well as in the next bullrun, I am not caught as a no-coiner, or more likely, a not-enough-coiner. Some people have a fear of missing out, I have a fear of being a no-coiner!

Residual income from multiple sources would be great. Back in the day and it will likely arrive again, is the challenge of being able to earn perpetually on relevant content, as 7 days is a very narrow earning window. The most valuable content on YouTube isn't necessarily what everyone is watching now, it is what many people have been watching for years and will be watchin for years to come, which is why relevant DIY guides are so popular to create. However on Hive, there isn't a huge incentive to develop evergreen content, as once that window closes, it is no longer to directly earn for the author. This also is part of the reason old content isn't rediscovered also, since curation can't be earned on it either.

But, that is to look at for another day.

So...

5-10x?

If all of your holdings were to go between 5 and 10 times, would it be enough? Are you buying a house, car or a can of Coke? Maybe you will be shopping around for a private tropical island to "hollow out and turn into a villain's lair" (@meesterboom). Obviously, it would be pretty brilliant for so many people around the world from such diverse backgrounds to have this kind of outcome and possibility, but I wonder, where would most be five years further down the track?

Many lottery winners end up in worse positions than before they won the lottery, because they aren't necessarily very good at the management side of their newly-found wealth. Instead, they spend the majority of it on depreciating consumables that have a relatively short lifecycle of usage or, high maintenance costs. Often both.

I see crypto a little like a lottery ticket and many of the people who are currently in, aren't necessarily the primed and seasoned investors with a lot of experience with wealth. This means that come the "win", many are not actually mentally or emotionally prepared for the success they have been crossing their fingers for and therefore, end up making decisions from the wrong state. It is kind of like how grocery shopping while hungry will lead to more spent and generally on less healthy food.

It is a funny little conflict though, as despite us looking for the successful outcome and spending a huge amount of time and effort and consideration to get there, most of us will not actually be ready come game day. This leads to the hindsight coulda, shoulda, woulda discussions, but none of that can be applied retroactively. As such, it is better to have the discussions before needed and develop a range of plans based on various circumstances, as no one really knows what is going to happen.

Having a range of activities that can be run simultaneously means that there is no maximization on the earnings, but there is mitigation in the risk of missing out. It is kind of like laddering buys and sells, none may catch the bottom or top, but it is better than missing a buy just before pump, or a sell, just before a drop.

I also expect that a lot of people are going to get caught by the volatility of the markets, with many selling too much, too early. It is painful to sell at 500% and then have that same token continue to rise to 2000%. I know, I have done it too. However, what I have learned is, even in a bull market, don't sell out of anything you might want to keep long term, just in case. Not everyone will agree, but that has worked out pretty well for me all in all, but since I am going long, I know there is always a bear to come and can wait.

Regardless though, pretty much all of us are going to get it wrong. But, it might not matter too much as it is possible that pretty much all of us also get it right enough that whatever the market does, we can take significant gains from it to improve our positions, whilst being part of solidifying crypto as a maturing industry, by supporting the projects that actually offer products and services. The amount of wealth staying on blockchains is just going to keep increasing through each cycle and as such, more business models will look to service it, creating a very strong industry that ties in all aspects of personal and business life in some way.

It seems crazy, but the "bullrun" market caps of today are going to look like little blips in the charts in comparison to the wealth stored and transferred across the blockchains of the future. So what the question of value will really come down to is, what projects will last and, time.

The end of the year is less than two months away - is 5-10x enough looking back from a decade down the track?

Taraz [ Gen1: Hive ]