Resistance down the drain

A plumber got back to us on a quote this morning and the evaluation for doing the work is what I will describe as "ludicrous" with even our part-time project manager taken aback and said "eeww" at the estimate for what is literally a couple days work, if that. I should have been a plumber as if this is what they are charging normally, I would pay off the house in well under 6 months - after paying the taxes and having a long holiday abroad.

Thankfully, we have some other options available, but we are running out of time as the schedules have to align between workers and work is meant to start in about 3 weeks for the bathroom. Finding people on short notice increases the price - perhaps this is their cunning plan.

I told my wife that soon I will find a DIY on YouTube and give it a go. She isn't keen.

However, this isn't an uncommon experience and is indeed a part of the experience, of renovating an old home or dealing with tradespeople in general. For them, it is part of the game as they are able to take a swing with highball offer and test resistance levels, some people won't blink and just accept which works out great for them, others will negotiate down a little and feel like they are getting a discount and, some will walk. In this case, we are looking to walk, as we do have options and our resistance at this price to accept is very high.

In many ways, this is much like trading where there is support and resistance levels with some kind of space between where there is a willingness to accept or sell. If the plumber had come in at say, half the price, we would have accepted and the negotiation would have been over, the trade made. If we counter offered at a quarter of the price, he would have resisted and not sold, his support. And above the 50% we would have resisted and not bought. Depending on what side of the sale one is on, is going to determine where the resistance level is for each and in general, there is no upper limit for those selling. If we offered the plumber a million euros to do the job, he would have accepted it happily.

When it comes to the plumber, once the trade is made, money for work, there is no buyback or sellback for either side, he can't buy his work back, we can't sell it back to him - the deal is forever.

Bitcoin is on the climb now as we approach the halving and the volumes being traded are massive, but in general, these are trades back and forth, not necessarily people selling out of Bitcoin completely. What they are hoping to do is gather more satoshis for the future. But I wonder, based on what amount someone has today, what price would they wake up to and be happy to sell out of crypto forever?

If you were holding one Bitcoin, at what price would you happily walk away from crypto? At what price would you be happy to sell half for?

The markets are testing the resistance levels of every person trading daily and while some will sell early, others will sell late. But, there is more complexity to it than just the buying and selling, as each individual also has other aspects of their life that comes into play, like their costs, their debts and the affects of FUD and FOMO on their feelings. It is a very complex system as a whole, as it brings the entire life situations of millions of individuals and ties them into one metric - price.

Much like the plumber needs to make a living and my wife and I have to make sure we can live - if we had a lot more resources behind us, we wouldn't mind paying a higher amount as much as when we have scarcity of resources and many things vying for its support. Without the scarcity constraints, we would be able to lower our resistance to higher price points and as a result, the cost of the plumber would increase, making it more expensive for everyone else who needs a plumber, just like buying into Bitcoin is 3x greater than about a year ago. It doesn't necessarily indicate demand of the mass though, it indicates the demand from those willing to pay higher amounts, with those with disposable income able to pay more than those without, me.

It is also why in investing, getting in early is such an important factor especially for those who do not have a great deal of extra, as at some price they are priced out of the market and will never have the opportunity again, at least to gain anything significant.

I came across this the other day and found it interesting as I didn't actually know this before.

Currently, there is about 18.3M Bitcoin in circulation with a potential ~20% of that lost forever through various reasons. The halving makes Bitcoin twice as hard to mine which slows supply, but the interesting thing for me is that the last Bitcoin is expected to be mined in twenty years from now, meaning that in the first ten years, 80% of the supply was printed and the last 20% will take 20 years to be released fully.

For some reference, at the current rate, HIVE inflation will reach a steady 0.95% a year in about 16 years from now and at that point, there will be around 700,000 million Hive in circulation (the numbers are very rough and there are other factors involved).

What this means is that there really isn't going to be a great deal of opportunity for people to own a large amount of Bitcoin in the future, but there is the opportunity for price to make even small amounts significant, considering that if it the 21M Bitcoin was distributed evenly now, each person on earth could have around about 0.003 Bitcoin - which is currently worth about 30 dollars US.

But, that last ~3M of that 21M is going to take a total of 20 years to come out of the mine, which is a very long time in trading terms. However, there is all the available supply that is currently being traded or held for the future and people who are having their resistance to sell tested daily, tempered and driven by their current life circumstances.

If I was to sell today, I could cover the plumber at his ludicrous price, but how long would it take me to get the same amount of Bitcoin if I wanted to buy back in later? Well, if price crashed heavily, not that long, but if it increases, it could be that I will never again hold as much as I do now, which isn't that much. But, this doesn't mean that it wouldn't be worth buying back into as an investment, it will just mean that the potential of future gains will be lower, as I would hold less.

But, this is the game, the support and resistance of us as individuals in a market place and it doesn't just apply to trading or plumbers - it applies to everything we spend our personal resources upon - whether it be a Ferrari or a loaf of bread. At what price point are you priced out of eating your favorite takeaway food? What is too much to pay for soap? Where are your support and resistance levels in regards to the time you spend on social media?

I am not much of a trader, but I find it interesting to explore my thoughts on these things and see what comes up, where I myself lay in the marketplace. What is my lower limit to sell HIVE at and at what upper price would I have sold everything? For me, Hive is different to Bitcoin as it comes with many more variables and use cases, including significant token earnings from staked participation - making it a more complex marketplace again, even though all of the same personal factors come into play as in any trade.

20 years from now when that last Bitcoin comes out of the mine - what do you think the price will be?
What will what you hold be worth at that point?

It might be an impossible question to answer, but perhaps it should still be considered when trading - I wonder how having a long-term expectation about the future price affects resistance levels to buy and sell today.

Potential with no upper ceiling or potential down the drain?

Taraz [ Gen1: Hive ]