Up 20% and looking ahead

Get ready for HIVE to go up about 400% in the next few days - because I just powered some up to extend my investment in by 20% - so now I am sitting at around 120K HIVE. I have been buying it on various exchanges for a little while now and it was just kind of sitting there looking glum, so I thought I would put it to work.

I don't maximize my curation activities in any way at all, which is pretty obvious by the amount of comments I vote on, but since in the last 7 days I have earned about 230 HIVE in curation, that should go up by around 40 HIVE over the next 7 days. Not a huge amount and with a street value of about 10 dollars US, it isn't going to change my life in any meaningful way. However, it does add that same amount to those I vote on and for some, those little bits can add up.

A lot of people scoff at the amounts they earn here but personally, I have always been grateful for every bit as I have a positive outlook on the future value of all of this in relation to the sunk costs and have a bit of history with where it once was. 40 STEEM was momentarily worth 320 dollars US at the All Time High (ATH) and while it wasn't there for long, it was sitting around half that for little while too.

For those who have only been here since the decline in price across the markets but who were powering up, the pump of HIVE up toward 1 dollar gave them a little taste of what it might be like. When it does really fire, the craziness and emotional reaction doesn't necessarily move in a straight line with price - nor does the activity around the blockchain.

Competition on the reward pool will likely move 5 -10x as people not only post more, but many "returnees" come back into vie for the HIVE in the pool, because they think that now that price is up, it is a good time to earn. Yeah, it is a good time to earn dollars, not a great time to earn HIVE. The best time to earn HIVE is also the best time to buy HIVE, at the lows. Perhaps people who don't buy don't pay attention to this or something - they don't spend much time considering how the pool works, they just worry about the value of their 7-day payouts.

The value of a post is very difficult to ascertain as it is tied to a current price, but it doesn't take into account the price that HIVE will be sold at. Some have earned at highs and sold at lows, some have earned at lows and sold at highs. The current price of HIVE is 25 cents, so a 1 dollar earning is 4 HIVE and sold now, will be worth 1 dollar. Sold at 4 dollars however, it will be worth 16x as much or a gain of 1600% - When something is sold matters.

However, at that 4 dollar price, people will likely distribute wider (as well as there being a lot more scam and spam) and therefore, less HIVE will go to individuals, as no matter how good posts might be, most will not consider them worthy of 1000 dollars. At the last ATH, there was no EIP in place which meant there was some highly overrewarded posts with no incentive to flag them down as the real and current costs was far too high for most people to warrant paying out of their pocket - so bad behavior was rampant.

This time though, there would be a 2.5 downvote allowance and there are some very large HIVE accounts that will apply their allowance to bring into line a lot of the values, including me - which is not a large account. However, with a current vote of around 1.75 now, 16x up from here I would have a 28 dollar vote, which while far less than the whales and large orcas, still will pack a punch. A 500K HIVE whale would have a vote of around 160 dollars.

This means that the next bullrun is going to be seeing some very interesting dynamics in the ecosystem and it should result in higher distribution as the disincentive to turn a blind eye to abuse has been taken away. While a lot of people don't like downvotes, I think that when HIVE is getting into the dollars and especially pushing toward 10 and past, tey will be glad that they exist, as watching people take 3000+ dollars a day out on absolute shit like was happening is pretty soul crushing, while struggling for a dollar or two.

And this is where the distribution will really matter and those who are community orientated will have a huge effect on the ecosystem, as currently the 800K of Hive in the pool is worth about 200K dollars - but at 4 dollars for example, it will be that 16x up, meaning it will be worth 3.2 million. That goes a lot further, even though the HIVE coming out of the pool is the same.

What people need to realize of course is that future is highly uncertain and that makes investing into it very risky - but for those who do, the rewards could be incredibly valuable - as they should be for early investors into a risky and immature industry. Every industry ever created has come saddled with risk and has been supported by people willing to take a chance on it - the difference with this one is that hundreds of millions (if not a couple billion) people can take part as there is very low costs of participation and almost no infrastructure outlay past what people already use, a smartphone and an internet connection.

This is one of the major reasons that people who are looking to expand their economic opportunity further than they might had the possibility before (or ever) should be seriously looking into it and seeing if they can understand and then still be willing to put something in - if they are willing to accept the risk model and face losing it all. For most of these people, the traditional markets are far out of reach and are so mature and manipulated, that even if they do get in, the returns are going to be relatively insignificant. This doesn't mean they shouldn't investigate and diversify of course, but diversity also means looking at the potential for return - and the jury is not only still out on the ceiling of crypto, they haven't even started evaluating the little evidence there is.

There are many streams of value for me on Hive that lay outside of the economic potential, but the possibility of the financial aspects adds a highly compelling and attractive layer of gamification into the experience that makes it far more complex and enjoyable that the social media models that are targeted to end users, not owners.

Again, for many, curation returns might not seem significant, but let's say that with 120K HIVE I can get 400 HP, that means with 12,000 around 40 is possible and with 1200 around 4 is possible. That isn't much, but 1200 HIVE is currently worth about 400 dollars. This means that for a complete payback from curation alone, Hive would need to sit around 4 dollars for around 25 weeks. Is that a long time? Yes - for some - but at that point the 1200 principle will also be worth 4800 dollars and the only thing that would have to be sold is the added curation portion to cover the initial buy, but at that price, selling a little more might not be a bad idea, if buying in at 25 cents.

In the real world, people don't talk about money and earnings as culturally it is "unacceptable" and base behavior, but the interesting thing is that it is one of the things we should be talking about as it affects our lives heavily and is also the area where there is a massive amount of disparity. A lot of the disparity is built into the system, but some people are able to close the gaps by using what they know or taking some risks.

Everyone wishes they bought into Apple or Google early, but they likely didn't even know they existed at the time, let alone had the opportunity to put in. We are all on Hive, we all have the opportunity, but some are only interested in what they take out without considering the timing at all.

So in my experience, whenever I make a significant power up, the price moves upward and I have no liquids - if this happens this time too - you are welcome. :)

Taraz [ Gen1: Hive ]