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Hive: Monthly Distribution Report Through 5/31/2020 (Whales Are Losing Power)

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For about two years, I did a monthly report on Steem called "STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken". This took a look at how the distribution of Steem Power changed on a monthly basis. The presumption on there was that the Whales were just getting more powerful when the reality showed the exact opposite. When it came to Steem Power, over a two years period of time, things were flattening out.

Of course, we know that Steemit Inc selling part of the stake each month had a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, as we found out, not enough was sold.

I decided to bring this report over to Hive so that we can monitor how things are going. I am going to use the first chart I have from Steem as the initial basis since Hive has its roots there. The chart is pertinent for all categories other than the Whales since we know that is much different than on Hive due to Steemit Inc.


These are the numbers through May 31, 2020.

Each month I monitor what is going on with new accounts and the amount of MVests in each category. I do this to determine what trends are taking place.

Now that we are at end of month, time to post the numbers again.

I want to thank @arcange for the work done each day compiling these numbers and making the charts.

We will be showing 3 months worth of data for analysis purposes to see how the 90 trend might be.

The first chart is from August of 2017, the month I started on Steem. It is placed here to provide some contrast to see how things are changing over a longer period of time.

Here is the breakdown.

8/1/2017

https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmTqYQggdMfyUA5sSb9yvbbwFsx57etKXAJ4J2vrPnspfF

The total MVests here is 336,932.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 75.44% Orcas 14.86% Dolphins 7.16% Minnows 2.14% Red Fish .01% Inactive .40%

3/31/2020

The total MVests here is 329,353.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 45.4% Orcas 24.95% Dolphins 17.06% Minnows 8.31% Red Fish 4.28%

4/30/2020

The total MVests here is 309,285.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 42.38% Orcas 26.22% Dolphins 17.95% Minnows 8.87% Red Fish 4.57%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -6.74% Orcas +5.49% Dolphins +5.22% Minnows +6.74% Red Fish +6.78%

5/31/2020

The total MVests here is 273,246.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 36.31% Orcas 29.46% Dolphins 19.07% Minnows 9.97% Red Fish 5.19%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -14.32% Orcas +12.36% Dolphins +6.24% Minnows +12.40% Red Fish +13.57%

3/31/2020

4/30/2020

5/31/2020

So what does this all tell us?

We are seeing things starting to shake out. There was a lot of powering down which can be expected. A lot of STEEM was bought on the exchanges that ended up being powered by them. As we progress through the 13 weeks, those who got involved simply for the airdrop are now getting their money out.

As we can see, the Whales saw the decrease, showing how some big players were simply here for the airdrop. It was the only category to register a negative while the others gained significantly.

On March 31, 2020, the Whales and Orcas had 231,703 MVests (70.35% of the total); on April 30, 2020, 212,160 MVests (68.66% of the total), a decrease of 2.4%; on May 31, 2020, 179,704 MVests (65.76% of the total), a decrease of 4.2%.

Over the next couple months, depending upon how the power downs shake out, it is possible that we see the Orcas surpass the Whales as the category with the most MVests. That would be quite a move compared to where things stood 3 years ago.

It looks like the distribution on Hive is flattening out. It will still take another few months before we see the true trend established. Once the airdrop power downs are out of the way, we will see how the platform progresses in terms of token accumulation.


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