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Crypto Analysis | Long Term Bitcoin Ideas

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@tobetada
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Good day Steemians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

So we all know that the crypto market is very volatile-which is especially true on a short term time scale. Let's have a look at what could happen in a more long term perspective.

Before I start, however, I have to acknowledge someone who gets a lot of hate here (which I kind of agree with actually, mainly becuase of low quality self voting posts), but he has been getting it right lately most of the time. Haejin posts a lot of his analysis on his youtube channel and the Bitcoin videos are definitely worth checking out.

I'd recommend giving his latest video a watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKMokzFbW2Q&t=0s

With that said, let's have a look at what is happening: Everyone has been talking about the bitcoin halving and how we are going to moon. But if we look at the past it becomes rather clear that prices did not go up immediately after the event.

In fact in the last halving we saw a dramatic correction. Of course this was just a blip in the long term bull market, but still: the price went down, not up (about 40%).

If we connect the tops and downs in this weekly chart, we get a triangle which I believe is very important for a long term analysis. This triangle has boxed in the price so to speak and when you look the right convergence point it ends in early 2023. That's a big triangle... and a lot of room for the price to move in. From past analyses I have noticed that the price in these triangles never reaches that end point, however. Instead, the price breaks up or down well before that date. I have marked that date at the end of this year (the vertical line to the right).

For some reason the time of December/January has always been important for the price movement. And this will probably be the case again at the end of this year. I expect the price to sustainably reach higher levels from that point on wards. But until then the price is likely going to continue falling (not linearly of course).

A reason for this can be found in the fractal of Dec/January of 2018/19. If you look closely, there is a similar triangle there which has predictive powers for the current movement. If this holds true, then expect prices of anywhere between 4ks and 5ks fairly soon. This price level, I believe is going to be the bottom and presents a great buying opportunity.

 


As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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