The New Long Life - a manifesto for better later years
The New Long Life - a manifesto for better later years (FT)
- The FT has reviewed the new book out from Scott & Gratton, on the need to change patterns of work & retirement. This book effectively follows on from their previous work “The 100 year life”.
- The authors argue that as a society we really need to rethink (or is that abandon) the old three stage life model. Under this we spent the first period growing up & getting educated, the second earning a living (& buying a house) and the third in retirement.
- This model is clearly broken – governments get this is part but most companies seem to carry on as if the model is still intact.
- Some aspects of the breakdown get talked about – but mainly in the context of a generational divide.
- Some suggestions in the book for improving life in retirement are around actions by employers on more flexible working and the need for individuals to invest in continuing education.
Analysis and Comments
- This is an incredibly important demographic topic on a whole range of levels. Its encouraging to see the topic getting wider coverage, with a similar book published last year by the FT columnist Camilla Cavendish “Extra Time – 10 lessons for an aging world” (well worth a read).
” The retirement savings gap reflects historical debt-funded, over-consumption by consumers and the profound demographic shifts now underway. Faced with surging retirement liabilities, governments and corporates are walking away yet consumers seem unaware at best, or unwilling/unable at worst to take them on”**
- To this many analysts in the US would add health – has become (already is ?) a massive problem, both from a health and a cost perspective: the elephant in the room .
- In the most recent contribution to the debate, The Wharton School brought together 120 experts to discuss what can be done better How will we afford longer lives.
- In the absence of a new, more dramatic, consensus, the most likely outcome continues to be that the cost of healthcare must rise & consumption among the elderly will fall, which will sustain the post 2008 crisis deflationary forces, keeping interest rates lower for (a lot) longer.
In such an environment, for those investors with a long term perspective, the most interesting sectors seem to be asset managers, real estate, utilities and parts of insurance as well as selected on-line businesses.**
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