Cindicator: Long-term Predictions (Gaming, Exchanges, SNX, Stablecoins and Central Banks)
Predicting the week/monthly prices and bounds on Cindicator has been a bit of a nightmare in the last week or two! Chaos reigns in all markets, from the oil war, to the crash in cryptocurrencies and traditional markets... followed by swings all over the place! I'm just happy if I can get a positive balance on points for the month... I was doing well until it all came crashing down a week or so ago!
Anyway, at this stage... I may as well be throwing darts at a dartboard! Weirdly enough... in the last day or two, cryptocurrencies have started to look more stable than the traditional markets! Foreign Exchange is also a bust at the moment, with huge swings in both the EUR/USD and GPD/USD rates as everyone wants to flee to the USD... but the USD economy is uncertain with the government there being unfocused on how to handle the pandemic!
So, it is nice to get some big picture questions about the coming year... assuming that we aren't all just hiding under a rock until Christmas! Although, at this point in time.. I wouldn't rule that out definitely either!
Well... I have to say that this particular question took me by surprise! A gaming storefront that would launch a blockchain based service? I can sort of see the appeal... the gaming and magical-internet money thing has always gone hand in hand!
However, what would be the point? To track purchases? That is still best handled by a central entity (at the moment)... Digital Rights Management? (Same thing...). The idea that one game, no copying... well, I can see the appeal again... but people have the habit of getting hacked and/or losing their keys/passwords. I'm not sure that people would want to have the personal responsibility of "storing" their games... and if the store holds the copies of the keys... well, that defeats the point of the decentralised ownership in the first place! It would be very interesting from the second-hand market point of view though... that you could sell your key!
Or would it be for in-game asset management... possibly, but again... there are public blockchains that have already done this (Enjin and WAX to name a couple...). I think that developers would prefer to use a public chain that wouldn't lock them to a particular store's proprietary blockchain.
So, I think if they do launch a blockchain based service, it would be a permissioned blockchain at best... but I just DON'T see the need for it! I don't see Valve doing it for the sake of doing it... however, I wouldn't put it past Epic. Still, I went with 0%!
This is a hard one again... the fact is that China at the government level supports blockchain, but not cryptocurrencies. However, they do appear to see it (along with other coutnries) as a potential battleground to weaken the global stranglehold that the USD represents. So, I would definitely put my bet on the Chinese state backed stablecoin launching... the 3 exchanges... well, I could see digital (blockchain) versions of a traditional asset exchanges being launched... but I'm not sure about the ones that operate currently.
I had put down a hesitant "no" for this one! Possibly... but not this year!
Haha... I had answered this question before the ETH crash of last week... which restructured much of DeFi! I had predicted a full YES for this question based only upon the rise of all cryptocurrency prices over the year against the USD. However, now I'm not sure... perhaps if the current crisis and market turmoil sparks more inflow into cryptocurrencies then it will happen... but Synthetix (Mintr) is a bit of a pain in the arse to use... however, I guess it isn't really for mainstream adoption, but for those who actually know their financial (and computing...) business!
YES. I bet I will look back and kick myself... but I think that China does want to reduce the stranglehold that the USD represents to the global markets. I think this is something that they are definitely willing to fast-track and get online as soon as possible! Plus, it is a handy tracking tool....
... well, I think China will! Quite possibly other smaller central banks will be willing to give it a try... if nothing else, to try and increase exposure to foreign markets and capital. The larger Western democracies... well, I doubt it... there is little to be gained... well, to be more precise, there is much to be put at risk!
I had a friend (blockchain programmer) that was looking into working with one of the Dutch banks on their blockchain program... and he decided not to take the job... as they were not looking to create new projects, but instead to allow a way for customers to invest and buy...
... however, that said... I think the same problems hold true that held in the past couple of years. Lack of regulation and certainty about that... problems with custody and the rules around that. Institutional money is steering clear because they need to be much more responsible and safeguard their investor's money... they can't afford to take the risks that retail and private funds... in fact, they are bound by law NOT to. So, despite all the screaming from the crypto-universe that the banks and institutions are anti-crypto... I think it is more that they are at best indifferent...
Still... A tentative "Yes" here... this is the year for getting these things sorted. Half might be a bit optimistic, but I live in hope!
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