3 years and 40 moons

A picture of my lunch. I can social good.

Well, today is my cake day and it has been 3 years on Steem almost to the hour,

a place that for quite a while I only called Steemit - which seems a very long time ago. My sig at the bottom used to be:

Taraz [ a Steemit original ]

...but I dropped the "it" as the project expanded and continued to decentralize into many small projects, interfaces and experiences, as designed.

People tend to forget that while we are all on the same blockchain, the use case of the chain is to be able to host multiple microcosms within the larger ecosystem and this is going to be driven by communities (which will evolve into much more than what they are today) and SMTs (which will be used to engage, connect, reward, track and transfer user and user values). The future looks bright if things go to plan, though the plan is pretty sketchy.

When I first arrived on Steem, the price was pretty bad - but I had no idea what it was or what that meant for me or the platform. I also didn't know that the price was actually getting worse and dropped 50% down to the All Time Low:

Which is actually on the date of my less important, non-digital birthday. Which I think is kind of cool as it means that one day, I can be reminded yearly of where the price had come from - as I sip 1000 dollar champagne from diamond flutes, whilst in the jacuzzi on my private plane...

Perhaps not.

Still, it has been a very interesting journey the last three years and I think that while my content has become more Steem-centric as I have become more invested, I think the main reason is that the more I learned about the potential of blockchains, crypto and where Steem could find its calling, the more positive I have become. I don't expect everyone to see it and I think that even fewer will have the foresight and risk acceptance to jump in, but we are definitely still on the early adoption ramp, and there is a long way to go.

Opportunities to get in on the ground floor of not only a business, but an entire industry set to impact all facets of the world are rarer than hen's teeth and an individual may only have an opportunity or two in a lifetime. Then to take advantage and actually enter, one also has to have the capabilities to do so.

I consider myself very lucky to have found Steem when I did and in the way that I did, because I was struggling in life and it was a hail Mary. It didn't work. However, I have been able to learn a massive amount and due to that early external to Steem motivation, I was able to push through the startup hurdles and build an understanding that gives me internal Steem motivation. What I mean by this is that I was initially driven by the potential for earnings I could take out, now I am motivated by the potential of the entire Steem ecosystem and what it could put in to the world and generate value.

Steem real estate is incredibly valuable in my opinion and I am glad that I have been able to build a patch of Steem land for myself. With all that is going on now with the house and loan conversation for my family, it is easy to look back and see that if I had cashed out at the 2018 highs and paid off my apartment, we would be in a much better position.

Yet, I feel that if I had done so at that point, I wouldn't be where I am today and perhaps, I wouldn't be talking to you at all on Steem as I do not believe I had a good enough understanding of the space and as prices dropped, I would have likely been too scared to buy back in, no matter the price. I have overcome many of those fears now and I am quite confident if in the same situation, I would be able to both benefit financially and not have the fear to ride out the waves.

Riding the waves is a big part of trading, but a big part of the challenge on Steem is that there is a social swell that influences behavior too, including the economic aspects like buying and selling. I wonder how many people have been influenced by my posts to buy some Steem and, I wonder how many have been influenced by others to sell or not to buy?

Eventually, one of us is going to be right and it can go either way. However, there is a massive difference between the directions when it comes to investing. When one invests in, the potential loss is known, it is the investment cost. However, the potential for gains are unbounded. So, if someone was convinced to buy 100 dollars worth of Steem at the recent 10 cent mark and hold 1000 tokens, they already know that the most they can lose is 100 dollars. What is their potential for gain?

They would already be up 65% by the way.

This is always the simplest calculation for estimating the value and risk of an investment, but of course, uncertainty has to be factored as well. Out of curiosity, what do you consider the potential for Bitcoin to collapse and go to zero? What do you think are the chances it goes to 100,000? Do you believe that the price of alt coins are currently coupled to Bitcoin? Which kinds of alt coin projects have the potential to decouple from the price of Bitcoin?

Where do you think Steem lays?

While a lot of people are looking at the Steem inflation pool for their earning potential, the greatest possibilities likely lay in the 100M+ liquids that are currently sitting around exchanges as they can be bought cheap in relative volume, powered up and used to increase coin holdings while adding to the value of the use case. 100 dollars now buys 650 Steem, not 1000. Is that good, or bad? if it goes to 2 dollars in 2 years, is 6500 dollars,a 1200% gain, considered good? What is your bank offering and, what else would you buy with that 100 dollars? Or ten dollars, or 10,000 dollars?

Every decision is economic in nature and there is always a cost to going left, right or standing still. The cost could be time, money, energy, relationships or any other kind of resource and as you can see, these things appear in the Steem ecosystem model also and can bring gains too.

For me, I have spent a lot of my valuable time on Steem but have gained a hobby that I love. I have put money into Steem that maybe one day will increase and give me some economic space. I have put plenty of energy into many factors of Steem and have been energized by the conversations and potential. And, I have met many people, built some good relationships and made quite a few friends that I trust.

What people have to really think about when living life is that there is upside and downside potential in every social media, every job, every house, every investment, every relationship and every decision accidental or intentional. The acceptance of the gain has to go hand in hand with the acceptance of the loss, and while many people only want one side, that is not life - on Steem, or anywhere else.

Let them eat cake!

Thanks to everyone and especially those who have stayed active through thick, thin and everything between.

Taraz [ a Steem original ]