Tops, Bottoms and The Meat in Between
It's hard not to talk Bitcoin lately, with all these events occuring at the moment. We got American and European banks collapsing, the FED mismanaging the current financial crisis, social unrest, and a proxy war in Ukraine. Bitcoin was born for such times, right?
But, thus far Bitcoin has always been paired with the US dollar or some other irrelevant currencies, it was never a "currency of its own", it always had to be priced/valued against existent currencies. It might take a while until it decouples from the traditional financial system and such pairings become irrelevant but for now, this is what we have to deal with.
Some say that AI will be using crypto, if it ever gets "his hands on money", and not "the digital cash" we are currently using, and this is just a supposition. We don't know yet what the reality will be years from now in regard to AI and how much room to roam it will have.
The way I see it, it already shows a lot of potentials, a quite dangerous one and I bet that no long from now we will be faced with AI bots taking the jobs of human investors and traders as they're doing with customer services and even content creation jobs. A.I. is here and it is here to stay.
This is a bad and a good thing at the same time. On one hand, we can leverage it for our own benefit(material or whatever), and on the other, we are facing the potential of technology taking over too much of "the decision-making tools" we currently have at hand. If you think the media has been disgraceful thus war when it came to manipulating the masses, just imagine the power it will have once deepfakes and AI-generated narratives will become a common for its use.
Just as A.I. is here to stay so is crypto and for the past few weeks, Bitcoin has shown only strength in relation to the dollar, and quite a few bears got slaughtered on the way up to $28k for BTC. It's funny how relativity functions...
Back in mid-2021, a $28K BTC looked like hell on earth for Bitcoiners and now it feels like a well-deserved breath of fresh air. Walking on thin ice($16k-$17k) for a good amount of time makes the $28K landmark unbelievable and unsustainable at the same time. I bet there are still quite a few waiting for it to fall down to $12k, or lower...
It's not going to happen. I said that months ago and I will say it again. Does that mean that we're now close to challenging new ATHs? Not even close. The way I see it we are in a healthy rebound but I don't see BTC North of $50k this year. I do see this level challenged probably sometime in the summer of 2023.
The real deal will commence once the next halving takes place and miners are going to enter a new drought season in terms of rewards for their mined blocks. This is when the selling pressure will diminish even harder and that's when you should hold tight to your coins even harder.
If you've managed to get out of this bear market with all your bags intact you should not consider yourself lucky but rather mature. Bear markets are for BUIDLing and accumulation and bull seasons are the times when you should get fearful, not vice versa. Many investors will once again make the same mistake placing fear of opportunity and greed on times to get fearful.
Get greedy near the top and hold onto the bags all the way down into the bear market. This is gonna be the story of the 2023-2025 bull market for quite a few, Why does that always happen the same way? Same reason why plebs didn't buy shit when the discounts were laying in front of them. They're after the perfect top and the perfect bottom, butthese are like Bigfoot, everyone talks about him but no one actually saw the damn thing...
The meat in between is what tastes the best. Why? Because it is accessible... You will have the chance to sell the $50k again, $60k, and probably even $100k but if your plan is to sell at exactly $200k per coin, or whatever other target you are clinging to, you might get rekt...
That doesn't mean one should dump everything at $50k just because he/she was able to get in at $20k. But one could start a DCA sell at this level. Follow the halving and you'll be good. Buy one-two years before halving and DCA out of the market one year after halving. It's that simple, and probably the best way to put your hands on that meat in between that most of us are ignorantly overlooking.
The only person that I know who actually sold a top in crypto is Charlie Lee and we don't know if he was simply lucky to do so or if he knew something. It just happened...
Thanks for your attention, Adrian
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