June 13th 2022 - This Time Is Different... It's Much Worse
If you glanced at the crypto-related social network this morning, you would probably notice something that you had noticed almost exactly one month ago. A lot of influencers (and what goes for influencers these days) are claiming that they have lost large amounts of their funds with the apparent downfall of crypto project that had been hailed as safe.
Yes, the story is eerily familiar. Just as the apocalyptic aftermath on the crypto markets, including Bitcoin which had (at 08:05 UTC) fell below important psychological support of 25,000 US$. This represents absolute carnage in terms of price action, with more than a year of gains being wiped out.
So, anyone publicly doubting that we are in crypto bear market will have quite a serious problem in finding arguments for such claim. A lot of very loud and very brash crypto influencers who were claiming that “this time is different” or promoting “super cycle” model of future market actions are very quiet now.
On the other hand, some those who were warning about bear market and telling people to prepare accordingly aren’t particularly louder now. Because, cryptosphere, despite price indicators returning where they were in November 2020, is in unknown territory. Too many people are actually blinded by price actions and technical analysis that doesn’t take into account Black Swan events. This is probably why the S2F model failed and Bitcoin never got to that magic and widely expected price of 100,000 US$ when it was supposed to.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are subjected to the series of events that most people involved in it (Milennials and GenZ) never experienced in their lives and some that even their Boomer grandparents can’t properly fathom. Like the rampant inflation that threatens to reach Weimar-style levels, recession that would make Great Depression look like the child’s play, destructive war that threatens to go nuclear, supply shortages that threaten to bring back famine in First World countries and make their citizens lose living standards that was taken for granted for almost a century.
How would cryptosphere react and adapt to those new circumstances? Yes, this time it might be different indeed. It could be much, much worse.
However, I would like to end this post with somewhat more cheerful, although ironic note. What was last month’s Celsius – overhyped and unsecure crypto project sinking the rest of the crypto world - is staging something of a come back while the giants like Bitcoin and Ethereum are going down. Both Luna and Luna Classic were among few cryptocurrencies to get into green this morning. One man’s dusk is another man’s dawn, even under such apocalyptic cirumstances.
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