Critical Levels For Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Nasdaq 100

6 comments-0 reblogs
avatar of @muratkbesiroglu
LeoFinance Badge
2 months ago - 3 minutes read


In July last year, some market players believed the FED would end the rate hikes earlier than expected because the FED had completed the interest rate hikes a few times before and returned to its abundant liquidity policy. Those who believed in the early pivot scenario caused a strong rally in the market. As a result of the increases in July and August, the Nasdaq 100 index rose to 13,600 and Ethereum to $ 2,000. It soon became clear that the idea that the FED would end the rate hikes early was incorrect. And the increase was recorded as a relief rally in the bullish bear market in July-August.

One reason for the rally was the rapid decline in prices. In less than a year, the price of Ethereum had fallen by a quarter and the price of Bitcoin by a third. Ethereum saw below $ 1000. Bitcoin fell below the level of 20k. Prices were attractive, but the Fed had to keep raising interest rates because it had an essential task of tackling inflation.

The local peaks in the Nasdaq 100 and Ethereum in August last year have not been exceeded. Ethereum returned from the $2000 resistance, and the Nasdaq rose to 13,600. Conversely, Bitcoin has increased to 28,000, surpassing the peak of $ 24,500 in August.

Technology stocks and cryptocurrencies were the assets most affected by the Fed's rate hikes. Now that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hikes, tech-based investments may be on the verge of rising. Could the Fed have already ended the rate hikes? The 30-day FED fund futures prices show that on May 3, the FED will raise interest rates with a 33% probability. In other words, the FED will not raise interest rates with a 67% probability.

Consumer inflation in the USA will probably be around 4.5 percent in March. This data means that the FED will decide on a positive real interest rate environment at the beginning of May. There is still more than a month until the Fed meeting. However, my scenario is that the Fed will not raise interest rates.

If the Nasdaq 100 can break past its August peak of 13,600, it will mark the end of the bear market. Similarly, if the Ethereum price exceeds $ 2000, it will mean the same thing. In such a scenario, it would not surprise Bitcoin to exceed the 30 thousand resistance. Market players must be convinced that interest rate hikes are over to overcome these resistances. The end of increases will be enough in the first stage. Later, of course, we will start discussing when the rate cuts will start.

So what if things don't go well? Then we can see the Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin, and Ethereum pull back toward their 200-day averages. The Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin, and Ethereum's 200-day averages are 11,905, 20,227, and 1,435, respectively.


Bitcoin shows a more robust outlook compared to the Nasdaq 100 and Ethereum. However, these three will act together. The FED, which has been influencing the markets since last summer, may put it on hold as of May. The abovementioned resistances will be overcome if all the market players are convinced that the interest rate hikes are over. That's when we can definitively conclude that the bear market is over.

Thank you for reading.

Cover Image Source: Midjourney App

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta