Thinking aloud about my crypto thesis: 7 thoughts about fundamentals to mull over
Now that the first quarter of 2023 is over, I am again trying to refine my financial strategies. This is afterall cryptothesis!
So I made an assessment of my overall asset allocation which I think is a necessary thing to do. It included how much I own in property assets, cash savings, cryptos, and the like. The conclusion is that things look pretty safe with only 3% of all I own invested in crypto.
I like to think that this small percentage is because I invested little in crypto, but the reality is that I have lost much over the years, and that resulted in its relative shrinkage in my overall financial portfolio. Arrrgh!
This is why I am keen to quickly revise my crypto thesis and strategy in time for the next bull cycle. I need to do better!
Furthermore, with the steady paycheck I get every month, I can afford to pour some more money into my crypto portfolio.
But before I do that, I need to be clear about some fundamentals. This post is my think aloud for it. I need to be wiser!
1. The next BTC halving is expected to happen in 2024, and we can expect the bull market again then.
Source: https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/rainbow/
If this rainbow regression line is held, someday BTC could be a million a piece!
2. The money supply seems deflationary at the moment Source:
It looks like it could go down more for a few years. Let's face it, it is bad for risk-on assets like crypto. But who knows, the aftereffect could mean more distrust in the existing financial system, and crypto continues to boom! At least BTC would.
3. If there is a bull market, there is a need to take profits. Because others will, and it will dip as shown below.
4. There will be times when alt-coins will outperform BTC. This is an example of LTC/BTC chart. That is the time to turn alts to BTC, if the aim is to accumulate enough BTC.
5. The question about the longevity of the asset. With close to 9400+ projects listed on coinmarketcap, is it a case of what that doesn't get killed getting stronger? If so, some projects which will last could indeed get stronger and become more stable! If this holds true, BTC can get only stronger as more people comes onboard.
6. There will be floor prices for some crypto that could never be reached. If they are also good projects. it can be safe to stack them and patiently wait till the bull market to unload them. Such as the box drawn below. Buy Low Sell High. Again for accumulating BTC.
7. Could the total crypto market cap blow up to a new high in the next upcycle? If so, maybe DCA and hodl till it reaches upwards is a better strategy. Judging from the earlier two cycles, there is a chance that the pattern will repeat itself.
Conclusion
These are my current 7 thoughts about some of the fundamental ideas in crypto that I am mulling over before deciding what to do with my crypto portfolio, and my DCA plans.
If you have ideas, I love to read them!
P/S: This is not financial advice, and please do your own due diligence before investing.
If you read this far... and if you are a like-minded Hiver who is on the path to learning more about Hive and crypto investing, and if you like to be tagged when I write such posts, I welcome you to leave a comment below and let me know. We can form an alliance to support each other's growth.
You might be interested in this post, @thatkidsblack, @graciousvic, @peniel2010, @deflacion, @jacoalberts, @limonta, @young-kedar, @svanbo, @sumotori, @zakludick, @poplar-22 and @hankanon!
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