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The AI Revolution: Rapid Acceleration By The End Of The Decade

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Here we sit about half way through 2023. That means we have 6.5 year left until 2030. Time certainly does fly.

The only thing that might be moving faster than time is the advancement of AI. Over the last couple years, we saw massive progress. People are now starting to catch on, mainly by the impressive release of ChatGPT-4. Rumors are that the next version is really going to be mind-blowing.

While many will rightly content this is not bringing us closer to AGI, it is a massive disruption nevertheless. Look at how the search companies reacted to this. Google was put on notice, something that we rarely saw done in the past.

The question is how will life change by the end of the decade? To forecast this, we have to look backwards.

Source

The 1980s

It is time to time travel back to the 1980s. There is a reason for this other than the fact this is the decade I grew up in.

Just before COVID, there were many making statements about technology and how life really did not change in the last 20 years. This was, for the most part, accurate. Sure we were completely upended by mobile but that was really a convergence of 3 existing technologies. At the same time, cloud took over but, again, people were still looking at a screen.

The reality is that our work and personal lives were largely the same. Perhaps a distribution mechanism changes as was the case with Netflix but we were still watching a film on our televisions.

If we step back to the turn of the century, and then look even further in the past, we would not make the same statement. Life in 2000 was completely different from 1980. In fact, there was no comparison.

Here is a quick list of devices or technologies that changed things:

  • VCR
  • in home gaming systems
  • mobile phone
  • copy machine
  • personal computer
  • the Internet
  • automation
  • cable television
  • Walkman
  • microwave
  • debit cards

Each of these started to appear in numbers during that decade and were further enhances throughout the 1990s.

In short, watching a show filmed in the 1970s shows how the world changed in just two decades.

2020-2040

This is actually a common occurrence. Since the middle of the 1800s, there are 20 years technological cycles. While this is always advancing forward, there are periods when society is impacted completely.

There are certain decades that have a few things that stick out but not much changes. For example, the 1960s were massive in terms of space and what countries did. However, in terms of innovation at the society level, not much happened. Same with the 1970s.

Of course, what followed was a boom.

We are about to embark upon another period like that. I am highly confident that, when we are sitting in 2040, looking back to 2020 will reveal how much things changed. Very little about how we work and play will be the same. We can already see some areas where that is the case.

None is more relevant to this conversation than artificial intelligence. Whatever level we achieve, and how that looks, it will be remarkably different from today. In fact, many are saying where we were 5 years ago is like night and day.

Tesla is making massive strides with its bot. Why do I bring this up? It was only introduced about 18 months ago, as a concept. Today, it is believed there are already a few prototypes capable of doing repetitive factory jobs. That is incredible progress in such a short period of time.

What happens when they have the baseline established and create hundreds to train their software? And then thousands? It will go parabolic.

Many believe that is what is happening with their autonomous driving software. Since they keep expanding the number of cars in the training, it becomes a fast feedback loop.

This is happening across the board. Now that Microsoft (OpenAI) brought out the latest with ChatGPT, everyone seems to be following suit. Google is getting very serious about it. Elon Musk has stated his team is getting into the race. Apple is always someone to keep an eye on in this realm.

We are seeing a lot happening. The bottom line is that, by the end of this decade, AI will have advanced rapidly.

What this all means is still unknown. Yet, we are forging ahead.

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