Expected Value of Steem Monsters Daily Quests [15]

in spt •  9 months ago  (edited)

Hey guys! With certain reward cards running out soon, I was inspired by @aggroed to do another expected value of reward cards!

Price History

Below is a graph of the price history. It'll look more like a graph as more info is added!
image.png

How it Was Calculated

Before calculating, I had to use the assumption that you can sell your card at the lowest price per BCX. The drop rates used were from @yabapmatt so we know that it's accurate.
image.png

Firstly, I calculated the average cost of cards per rarity, then I multiplied it by the chance of it being opened. I added these up for all the rarities and then we have the expected value of each reward card earned. After that, I just had to simply multiply that value by how many cards you earn from each rank!

Today's Data

The data is sorted in rarity, from lowest to highest. Then the average value of each rarity is calculated, which is multiplied by its chance to drop. This is all then added together to form the expected value of each reward card.

image.png

Today's Average Value: $0.1264

Expected Value of Each Rank

  • Note: this is assuming you stay at the same rank for the whole season, each season has 14 days and you complete all daily quests in the 14 days. Therefore, this estimate is quite high and realistically you aren't going to earn this much.
    image.png

Price History

  • 04/02: $0.0941
  • 07/02: $0.1051
  • 11/02: $0.0939
  • 17/02: $0.0699
  • 11/03: $0.0906
  • 16/03: $0.0874
  • 19/03: $0.0842
  • 21/03: $0.0884
  • 23/03: $0.0883
  • 31/03: $0.1018
  • 22/04: $0.0698
  • 22/06: $0.1141
  • 25/08: $0.1264

Should I use Potions (EDITED)

As requested by @aggroed, I have done some basic analysis on whether or not potions are worth it.

Using a price of $1/1k DECs, each card costs an extra $0.09 to reveal with max potions and increases the EV to $0.2395. Therefore, potions are worth it at the spot price of cards. However, before you invest in potions to get some more of those gold foil legendaries, consider the future prices as liquidity is low and it's often hard to sell one at market price.

In my previous version, I declared potions are NOT worth it. However, I think it was because I forgot to multiply the gold drop rates for the common, rare and epic cards. That has been fixed and upon fixing it it's clear that it IS worth having potions for reward cards.

Should I buy reward potions?

Yes, absolutely! As long as the expected value of a reward card is above $0.1, you should buy them, this doesn't even take the DEC discounts you get from guilds into consideration.

Happy Questing!

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Nice analysis but lowest price per BCX is not a good measure because high level cards usually sell at a significant discount per BCX to single cards. You should use the lowest single card price.

Hi! I usually use lowest price per BCX to be conservative. I understand single cards often sell for more, but there's also a 5% market fee, plus often people sell at below market price, especially the gold foil legendaries. So I think using lowest price/BCX might actually be a little too generous!

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This was a amazing run down. thanks so much for doing all of this. I'm learning more and more about the great game everyday thanks to these types of posts.

I think I nearly jumped out of my chair when I pulled my first (and only) legendary card. I hope I can grab a few more before the packs are gone.

Good luck with your packs! Don't forget you can sometimes get them from Steem Engine for much cheaper than buying them from the site! :)
Always worth having a look before you buy from the website
However, buying from Steem Engine does not contribute to your "Maverick Status" on Discord if that's something you're interested in.

I've never heard of "Maverick Status" right now I am in the mist of fixing my discord. something odd happened and I can not claim my account, waiting on discord to fix it on their end.

I will try to buy packs a few on Steem engine though. I can hold some of them then as a token right? maybe wait and sell later on when/if beta packs go up in price.

Maverick Status basically just means you get access to speak on a special discord channel, otherwise you can only view it. They've also done an SPT airdrop for Mavericks, but that's about the only benefits you get (at least so far). You get it by purchasing 500 packs.

Yes you can hold the as a token, so you can list them and sell them later as you wish! :) You have to send them to @steemmonsters to redeem them into packs.

Cool - thanks for the help understanding all this.

I think I will start buying/ stocking a few packs on steem engine (depending on the price). Open a few for myself and save the rest for the future.

Nice analysis :) But the number of cards per quest is incorrect:


https://steemmonsters.com/settings

You are right, thanks for the heads up! I'll modify these numbers for my next post :)
I haven't changed these numbers for like 4-5 months!

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I have come to similar conclusions as well! I am still undecided on Alchemy potions but legendary ones work pretty well! The way that prices continue to perform, even in the Reward edition, makes the future very promising thanks to how the DEC economy has really helped.

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