"Bitcoin Top($69K) to Bottom($12K)". Not Going To Happen...
Believe it or not but there are still plenty of crypto folks waiting for BTC to dip as low as $12,000. Why? Because that's where they see "strong support" and BECAUSE for the past two cycles BTC has always corrected 80% of its ATH.
This time is different, though. I guarantee.
Now, the ones that followed me for a while know that I'm not a TA expert, but I do try to use my logic and my intuition in trying to figure out where the market might go in the future. Sometimes I nail such forecasts, sometimes not...
I highly disagree, though, with the ones claiming BTC will go to $12k this bear market, and let me tell you why... I'm more of an Xs person than a percentages one, if that makes any sense in the English language.
Instead of analyzing the percentages, BTC has gone up from ATH to ATH and from past ATH to bottoms, I have rather prefered to look at how high and low the moves are in... Xs.
So, let me state my case now: in 2013 BTC topped at around $1,200 and corrected afterward to as low as $200. That's 6x top to bottom. Then, after it recovered, in 2017 Bitcoin topped at around $20,000($19,666 to be more precise), which translates to a 16x 2013 to 2017 peak.
In 2018, however, it bottomed at $3,000 from its 2017 peak which is 6.6x. Pretty much the same depth in correction as in 2013-2015.
Now, or better said, last year BTC peaked at $69,000 which is ONLY 3.4X from 2017 peak. From the 2021 ATH until now(considering $17,500 as the bottom) it has corrected just a 4X from the ATH. Does it mean it will still have to go lower to around $12,000 just to fill the gap to 6x top to bottom?
Well, no. My logic tells me it doesn't have to... It does not mean it won't. We all remember the March 2020 crash which was definitely not in cards but happened anyway. BUT if we don't get any black swan event my take is that BTC won't go to $12,000 EVER. It doesn't have to respect a 6X top to bottom correction if it hasn't had a plus 10x ATH to ATH appreciation.
If BTC was to peak at around $200,000 then it would make a hell lot of sense for it to correct 80%, or better said 6x its 2021 ATH, but since we didn't have such a high peak why should the bottom be different?
If we look into patterns and expect them to repeat over time then we should take every metric into consideration and not just what's close to our bias. I'm not discrediting any technical analyst with this post, some are doing a great job, but some are really full of shit... And you know what's worse? These have tons of followers on Twitter.
BTC won't correct the regular 6x from its ATH this time, dipping to as low as $12,000 because it has only scored a 3.5X ATH to ATH, and not the usual plus 10x. Case closed.
Thanks for your attention, Adrian
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