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Buying more packs, the dilemma and gambling with packs

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Belemo
@belemo
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I set out with the intention of buying a total of 1000 Chaos legion packs during the general sale. I also expected the general sale to span two months and I still think my prediction will be correct.

The rush in the first 24 hours has somewhat dissipated over the past couple of hours. The servers are back to working normally and we're slowly getting back to normalcy.

Anyway, at the time of writing, I'm up to 412 Chaos Legion packs. I'm just 88 packs closer to reaching 500 packs and the halfway mark of my goal.

This also means that I can only open 88 more packs from my collection. Right now, I have 188 packs in my collection. It's a perfect number.

Yesterday wasn't my day but today, I'm feeling refreshed and ready to go again. I think lady luck will be kinder to me today. I can feel it in my bones.

I also feel really proud of myself for being able to fund this expedition. During the untamed edition, I think I was able to fund around 250 packs.

For me, looking at the number of packs that I'm able to comfortably afford speaks volumes of how much I've grown in the past couple of months. Yesterday, for example, I was comfortably able to spend over $1,200 and if everything goes well, I could be investing even double that amount on packs.

To hodl or to open

This is actually a big decision to make for anyone with packs right now. It's not even about flipping them for profit in the future, there's another issue of sorts, to contend with.

Note that at different points during the sale, new monsters will be released to investors. A decent number of the legendary monsters will also be found inside packs.

Now the easy answer is that you should just wait until all legendaries are released and then open your packs but it is more complicated than that.

Judging by the level of competition for resources in the game, waiting might be as dangerous as opening. The number of people I know that have bought over 1 thousand packs is astonishing.

Assuming there are also investors that got tens of thousands of packs spread out across different accounts, there's a chance that most of the legendaries go out of print before the next one is even released to the public.

When I think about my collection, for example, where I've received one GF legendary in the past and then I've also received a total of about 13 normal legendaries as a whole, I think people with big money would have received at least 10 times more than this.

So this means that every day you wait, you're rolling the dice and hoping that the bigger accounts aren't opening a shit ton of packs.

For me, it is a huge gamble but I'm willing to roll the dice and wait out the sales. However, waiting for poses a small problem for me because my plan was to open packs, sell some monsters and then reinvest the proceed into more packs.

Cheaper packs but no bonus

For now, at least, Chaos Legion packs are much cheaper on exchanges. Interestingly, vouchers now cost about the same thing with packs on Hive-engine.

You can still buy packs on exchanges but those packs don't qualify for the NFT airdrops. That's probably the reason why they're much cheaper than packs in the game.

I expect this trend to continue for as long as there are packs to mint with credit within the game. However, immediately all the packs are bought out we'll see the price rising. We'll also probably see vouchers go in the opposite direction.

In a recent Twitter stream, Hardpoint enquired about vouchers and @yabapmatt talked about future uses of vouchers. He stated outrightly how Vouchers definitely have used when the land extension comes around but didn't want to give too much away.

I reckon that there will still be a decent number of people dumping vouchers immediately after this general sale ends. I'll watch how things go and see if I can pick up some vouchers when the price hits rock bottom.

So for now at least, while the sale goes on, packs and vouchers on exchanges are the same prices. So, if you don't care about the airdrop, you can get packs for about $3 on hive-engine.

In summary

I'll be holding on to my dream of buying 1k packs and who knows, maybe even go beyond that. I also plan to hodl 500 packs until the end of the general sale.

I hope I'll be able to resist the urge to open those 500 packs because the plan is to keep them for about a year and then see what the price will be by then.

I don't like planning too far ahead in crypto because things are always changing. I take it one day at a time and make the most out of the moment.

I'll be keeping my fingers crossed and with some luck, I'll be in a much better place in the near future.

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