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It smells like something died around here

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Belemo
@belemo
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4 min read

I woke up to reds all over the place and damn it stinks. Everything in my portfolio is taking a beating and that sucks, especially considering all the lofty predictions we had for the year.

Bitcoin dropped off its psychological level of hope to below $50k and we also see Ethereum trading at unseen levels since last month or something.

Again, I always like to get perspective in everything and not just panic due to the surface value. Assets have dropped significantly since their highs but in reality, long-term holders are still very much in the green.

I constantly praise long-term holders because they're the real MVPs in this game. Their patience and dedication keep the market going. They give hope to the industry and will certainly earn the most profit in the long run.

Short term thoughts

Anyway, the short-term gains have been amiss for most of December. That trend has persisted till now and we saw a remarkable drop in the value of assets yesterday.

Bitcoin is currently trading around the $47k level and while that's not such a bad place to be, it's not good either. Analysts are already predicting that the wave of selling might hurt the price of Bitcoin a bit more.

According to one trader that was captured on Cointelegraph;

“We formed a double top that was clearly defined by bearish RSI divergence. Notice how price action trends up, while RSI was trending down. We also had a bearish Alpha Thrust & Squeeze fakeout.”

A further look into the article discussed the potential of Bitcoin falling further down the ladder. The prediction has explained that Bitcoin could even drop as low as $44k.

Judging by the pace of the drop, I reckon $44k is a decent range. Honestly, I'll be pleased if Bitcoin stays anywhere above $40k for the remainder of the year.

Taking profit

I guess on the surface of it, we can't blame people for selling and taking a profit. As much as it hurts the market, they have to protect their own interest as well.

Also, I reckon there are some tax requirements and paperwork that many of the sellers are considering for their decision.

In any case, I don't think there's so much to be worried about. This correction is healthy and perfectly normal, in my opinion. Even if the price of Bitcoin drops a bit more, I think we should just take it in our stride and prepare for next year.

Next year is coming

I'm still wholesomely bullish about the coming year because of the developments that will be coming our way. I feel like regardless of the general market's behaviour, certain projects will still have their day in the sun.

For example, the Ragnarok and Larynx airdrops will definitely have a net positive effect on Hive in the coming days. I think the interest in Hive will spike dramatically when the new year starts and the airdrop, snapshot, and whatnot draw closer.

A fine example of how development in a project can insulate it from the general market crunch can be found in AVA. We're drawing closer to the airdrop of TRVL tokens and because of the staking of AVA required to participate, the price of AVA did not take a beating during yesterday's sell-off.

Play to earn woes

I don't know if this could be a contributing factor to the general market situation but there has been some bad blood between the South Korean government and play-to-earn games.

It was recently discussed that the government of the Asian country recently went on the offensive against blockchain games. In fact, the government instructed that google and apple block any game that requires in-app purchases of NFT or any other asset to play.

While I doubt that this can have a large-scale effect on the entire industry, I think it is negative, with all things considered. Considering how things are right now, I don't think we need any more bad news.

Splinterlands is bleeding

Speaking of bad news, there's also one last piece of news that's been sad to watch. Recently, we've had so many SPlinterlands assets going straight down the toilet.

It has been really frustrating to watch. SPlinterlands assets seem to have the shakiest foundation of all assets in the market right now, as minor variations in bitcoin seem to lead to violent drops.

Assets like SPS and DEC are trading at levels unseen for months. It's really sad to watch I must say, but that's just how life goes in this industry.

End of year bull run canceled

So, what we know for sure is that we're definitely not going to see Bitcoin trading at $100k before the end of the year.

The stock-to-flow prediction over Bitcoin reaching $90k levels is completely off, barring a monumental rise in the value of assets. Oh well, we go again next year.


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