Why is SPS dumping when Rift Watchers are on the way?

Just yesterday, I was talking about the potential of SPS pumping all the way up to the 10 cents range before the sale of Rift Watchers collection starts. For a while, my prediction was actually correct with SPS slightly above 8 cents for a brief period but things haven't exactly followed my script.

The last time I checked the price, SPS dropped "significantly" from 8 cents to 7 cents and while these are trivial numbers in the general scheme of things, I wonder what could have been the cause of this drop.

My first course of action was naturally to check the Official Splinterlands page on Hive to note if there were some changes and I didn't see any. The summary of the townhall meeting covered the new developments including the Genesis League Soccer Whitepaper, Runi NFT project on Ethereum and other things that will eventually influence the price of SPS but not just right now.

Two days ago, Splinterlands also released a trailer for the Rift Watchers collection which I believe should have even further boosted the standing of SPS token. Yet things haven't quite gone according to my script as we see SPS heading in the wrong direction.

The wider crypto market

I have a bunch of theories about why the price of SPS dumped and at the top of the list, there's the minor dip the entire crypto market experienced in the past 24 hours. Daddy Bitcoin shed roughly $2k worth of value in the past 24 hours, dragging everyone down with it.

SPS has generally been affected by activities on the broader crypto market which can be annoying but also has its merits. It could mean that in the event of a major bitcoin rally, we could see SPS running up as well.

In any case, the SPS pump in the past couple of days wasn't influenced by Bitcoin though. SPS started moving up when the date for the presale of Rift Watchers was announced, and that pump was despite the state of the crypto market, so how come the wider crypto market dump or not dropped the value?

Well, there will always be trading bots doing all that fancy maths to "win" the market and all, so I guess that could be a part of the reason why SPS dumped.

Exhausted Investors

Other than the aforementioned hunch, my only other suspicion, which I seriously doubt is that investors have stored up enough SPS and vouchers for the sale, so they have backed off buying for now. This then leaves the token at the mercy of the trading bots.

When you consider the fact that right now, there's not a lot of money in the system to throw around, it is possible that many investors have been stretched thin, and after buying up all the SPS they could afford, they are now waiting to see how things go.

This waiting period then coincided with the wider crypto dump and Bitcoin's pressure dragged SPS token down with it. Keep in mind that SPS on Hive at least, is priced in Hive, so it is not out of the question to think that Hive's minor dump also contributed.

A pump will still come

In any case, I don't think we've seen the last of investor buy pressure because things will start heating up as we get closer to the start of the presale. In a little over 24 hours, we could see another SPS and voucher rally when the pushing and shoving starts.

This blip could actually end up being the calm before the SPS pump storm. Ah, and when I say "pump storm", I mean we're just going to 10 cents or a bit above that, not like the future bull market pump that could get us to $1.

Other than the Rift Watchers collection, there's also some excitement surrounding the Genesis Soccer League news that will encourage investors to stake more SPS.

I was hoping I'd be able to do one of those high IQ plays where I sell some SPS at the top and buy back at the bottom but I'm worried I might not be mentally equipped for that. The alternative is to switch to degen move and just buy as many SPS as I can.

When you think about it, SPS could still go lower but it probably bottoms out at 4 cents in the worst-case scenario, so that's not much. Dollar-cost averaging at these prices could mean a lot more in the future.

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