Doom and Gloom Is Actully Hope

The doom and gloom is really setting in for people at the moment. Not only are crypto markets being crushed but so are stock markets, record high inflation and all coming full circle from the choices the government made two years ago. Those choices where to lock down the country, spend billions on vaccines and throw money at companies and very little at people (the tax paying citizens).

What we are feeling now is what we should have been feeling during the lockdown period and honestly we most likely would have weather it better. While times would have been hard for sure it would have made sense. People are now struggling to make sense of what's happening now.

Let's take a look at the stock market over the last 5 years. That arrow with the 1 on it is when lockdowns started. The market took a heavy and drastic correction at this point preparing for some serious damage.

That line is what is a normal steady trajectory up would be for the markets. This put's us now below that line but I feel we have further to go. I estmate we won't see much of a turn around on the selling pressure till near 25k in the stock market.

HOWEVER!

I do believe for the most part that the pricing sell off in crypto is over. Crypto acts a bit differently than the stock market. It's faster and it operates 24/7 unlike the limited trading window and limited negative pressure it's allowed before the breaker is pulled.

That red line is the point in which the stock market rallied. You can see that money didn't really enter into crypto till 6 months later and from there exploded a number of times. If crypto corrects more I see it hitting a market cap of 500 billion at the lowest and around 700 billion at the top. That means we still have some correction to set in but I feel it will be minimal compared to the stock market. The reason I push 500 billion is because it's going to get over sold for sure. In any case we most likely will sit at these low levels for some time. I give it a year before things start to recover and everyone gets a bit of a reality check. Investing was "easy" for people and it got pumped to levels that honestly made no sense. People dumped millions into NFT artworks, crypto projects that were jokes and so forth. I see us holding that 500 - 700 billion market for about a year before we have a chance at moves again.

That being said there is still PLENTY of opportunity to make money or stack the crypto units in preparation for the next rally.

The Dip

When lockdowns happened the markets slammed into full blown meltdown as the stock market lost 30% over 30 days. It wasn't until the fed announced they would bail us out that the markets recovered and started on their increase again. It made no logical sense sure you fix the huge sell off now but at some point you're going to have to pay for it. That's what we are now feeling.

However to make note of this we most likely would have been worse of having this didn't happen. While times feel rough now imagine how it would have been to see the stock market continue to crash, crypto selling off instead of rally and inflation kicking in as supplies of everything started to dry up. All we did was delay that to the point of today but we are in a better position to be able to weather that and feel it less. It's hard to understand and feel that but that's most likely how it would have all went down.

So where does the hope come in?

What's crazy about markets is you don't realize you're in it till it's over in most cases. For example we most likely have been in the bear market for a good 6+ months already Markets stagnated around July of last year and in October started there slow sell off. The markets have been in a steady decline for months and only recently took a massive sell off hit which has triggered us to this point. Bear markets normally last about 2 years max but in many cases it's about a year and a half to two years. That means we very well could be half way through this bear market already giving you just 6 months to build your base and get ready for the next bull market.

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