It's Tuesday in most versions of reality, and it’s another bloodbath in the financial markets. I’m not just talking about the Cryptosphere, I’m also talking about the broader financial markets; with stock market indices now setting new lows for 2022.

Looking at it all — while being thankful that I don’t currently ”have to” sell anything urgently — made me ponder the age-old question of where ”rock bottom” is. I’m thinking about it partially because I have been watching the CUB token for a while, looking for some signal that it has found a ”hard” bottom, since I am looking/hoping to increase my stake.

I started looking (seriously) for that bottom at the beginning of April, thinking that the 20-cent level might be it, since we'd already come down some 95% since the earliest days. We’re now just 40 days later and CUB has shed 75% more of its value, to now hover just above five cents.

Again, I find myself wondering where is ”rock bottom?”

And what determines a rock bottom?

Just to clarify, I'm not talking about the sort of "rock bottom" associated with an investment slipping into permanent decay and obsolescence, but the kind of "rock bottom" from which something has become an extreme value play, from which it makes a spectacular comeback.

In legacy investing, it was often easier to tell when rock bottom was close because at some point a stock’s value would approach the liquidation value (per outstanding share) of a company’s actual hard assets — machinery, plant, cash in the bank, and so on.

The Cryptosphere doesn’t really have that. Some people put their faith in ”technicians” who make statements about ”support levels” for a token at this-level-and-that, but they often show themselves to be hopelessly wrong. Or what they describe as ”support” is little more that a momentary bounce in a greater downtrend.

Others point to (particularly with Bitcoin) the ”cost of mining.”

That’s all fine and good, but strikes me as a flimsy argument in a world where most of the tokens are already in circulation. Those tokens don’t ”care” what it cost to produce more of them; they behave purely according to the market sentiment of the moment.

As I look out across this ocean of ostensible ”experts,” it strikes me that everyone is basically just guessing.

Sure, we’re on the ”An Exciting New Frontier,” here so conventional rules no longer apply. But we’re also dealing with something that — for lack of a better way of describing it — can’t be spread on your morning toast, not be installed in a piece of equipment. I have a feeling that’s precisely why billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t believe in Bitcoin.

Yes, I realize that there are lots of intangibles that we assign ”value” to, regardless of whether they come in the form of someone’s opinion, or otherwise non-functional pieces of paper with pictures of dead Presidents.

There are still parts of Africa in which a strand of small sea shells ("cowries") are more likely to procure you a goat than aforesaid pictures of dead presidents.

With all that said, I am still no closer to figuring out where ”rock bottom” is, nor what metric we would even use to determine what/where ”Rock Bottom” IS, when it comes to the cryptosphere. As I write these words, Bitcoin is once again slowly sinking towards the "key" $30,000 level... but is that really "key," or merely another number on a page?

Nor am I any closer to ascertaining whether or not CUB is bouncing on its bottom, or whether it’s likely to lose another 75% from here and I should just wait for it to hit one cent...

Thanks for reading, and have a great week!

=^..^=

CuratorCat 10-MAY-2022

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