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Hive Inflation And Supply For April 2022

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Dalz
@dalz
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This is a report for the Hive supply and inflation for April 2022. Tracking the HIVE supply has always been challenging and this monthly post aims to provide an overview of the flow of inflation, conversions etc. Let’s take a look!

The projected inflation for 2022 is around 7%.

The thing is Hive has a double currency system HIVE and HBD and there are conversions between them that add or remove HIVE from circulation on top of the regular inflation. Furthermore, there is HIVE in the DHF that is slowly being converted to HBD and also HIVE sent to the DHF is also converted to HBD. Because of this additional mechanics the HIVE inflation and supply can be drastically different in real time then the regular one.

To be able to follow the HIVE supply we need the following.

HIVE Created:

  • Author rewards
  • Curation rewards
  • Witness rewards
  • Staking rewards
  • HIVE from HBD Conversions

HIVE Removed:

  • HIVE to HBD conversions
  • Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF
  • HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD
  • Transfers to null + null as post beneficiary
  • New accounts creation fee

HBD Created:

  • 10% share of the inflation to the DHF
  • HBD Author Rewards
  • Interest payouts
  • HIVE to HBD Conversions
  • Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF
  • HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD

HBD Removed:

  • HBD to HIVE Conversions
  • Transfers to null + null as post beneficiary

When all the above is summed up, we will get all the differences between them and how much HIVE and HBD was created or removed in a certain time frame.

With this said let’s take a look at the charts.

HIVE Created

Here is the chart.

  • HBD to HIVE conversions
  • Curation Rewards
  • Author rewards
  • Staking Rewards
  • Witness Rewards

All the above are paid as Hive Power or VESTS, except for HBD to HIVE conversions. We can notice that the HBD to HIVE conversions are the dominant in the chart. Thing is these work both ways and a big part of them is converted back to HIVE, especially through the work of the stabilizer.

The regular inflation is around 55k HIVE per day. It has been slowly decreasing in the period. In April there was on average there was around 145k HIVE per day from HBD conversions, although as noted most of them are converted back to HBD. A big part of the conversions in both of the directions are now generated from the @hbdstabilizer.

A total of 6M HIVE was created in the last month, out of which 4.3M from conversions and 1.7M from regular inflation.

HIVE Removed From Circulation

Here is the chart.

The above takes into consideration six different ways of HIVE removed

  • Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF
  • HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD
  • Transfers to null
  • Null as post beneficiary
  • New accounts creation fee
  • HIVE to HBD conversions

As we can see the conversions from HIVE to HBD that happened at the end of August and begging of September 2021 have impacted the chart heavily. On a few occasions there was 2M HIVE converted to HBD in one day.

Cumulative a total of 4.4M HIVE was removed in April 2022.

HBD Created

Here it the chart.

The above is a chart for HBD created without the conversions. It includes to following.

  • 10% share of the inflation to the DHF

  • HBD Author Rewards

  • Interest payouts

  • HIVE to HBD conversions

  • Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF

  • HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD

Here again we can see that the conversions are dominant when it comes to adding a new supply of HBD. The August and September 2021 period is when a lot of HBD was created.
The ninja mined HIVE conversions are also adding significant amounts of HBD in the DHF. Note that the HBD in the DHF doesn’t count as debt.

A total of 4.9M HBD was created in April 2022, most of it from HIVE transfers to the DHF from the stabilizer (3.4M) and from the ninja mine conversions in the DHF (0.9M).

HBD Removed

Now let’s take a look at HBD removed. Here is the chart.

HBD is mainly removed when converted to HIVE, but also with transfer to @null and setting null as beneficiary on posts rewards.

HBD is being converted to HIVE when the price is below the peg. We can see that in the last period there is a lot of HBD conversions. A total of 3.2M HBD was removed in April 2022, most of it from HIVE conversions.

HIVE Supply

When all the above is added and removed, we get this chart for the all time HIVE supply.

Up until August 2021, the supply was almost steadily increasing with a small fluctuation. Then a huge drop in the supply in August and September 2021. An increase since then and at the end of April we are around 379M HIVE in circulation.

HBD Supply

Here is the chart for the HBD supply.

The light color is HBD in the DHF. As we can see the HBD supply has expanded a lot in 2021, but it has been in the downtrend in the last months. While the HBD supply in the DHF is growing and it is maintaining the cumulative supply around 24M, the HBD supply excluding the DHF has been going down and now it is around 9M HBD, down from the 9.4M in the previous month.

In April the supply of HBD (excluding the DHF), decreased for around -0.4M. As mentioned, it was most because of the conversions to HIVE. With this amount of HBD and the HIVE price the debt is now at 2.7%.

Virtual HIVE Supply

When we add the HIVE equivalent supply from the HBD in circulation to the HIVE supply we get the chart bellow.

When we zoom in we get this.

The light color is HIVE that in theory can be converted from HBD at the current market prices for HIVE.
We can see that the virtual supply fluctuates quite a lot, mostly because it is tied to the price of HIVE. As the price of HIVE increases, the virtual supply decreases and the opposite.

Monthly Inflation

If we plot the monthly inflation, we get this.

The red is the HIVE only inflation, the light dark VIRTUAL HIVE inflation, and the whit is the projected inflation.

The monthly inflation for April 2022 is 0.44%. The projected monthly is 0.58%.

We can see that the highest the monthly inflation has been is 1.54%, while it has reached negative -3.83% in September 2021. For April 2022 the inflation is at 0.44%, while the virtual HIVE inflation is negative 1.4%.

The yearly inflation, projected and realized looks like this.

Quite the differences here. Again mainly because of the HBD conversions. In 2019 and 2020 we can see that the realized is quite above the projected, while in 2021 the inflation is negative -2.7%.

2022 is projected at around 7% (0.58% monthly). The first three months are around that number, will see how it goes for the rest of the year, as there is still a lot to come.

Supply Summary

Here is the new HIVE put in circulation by category.

We can see that conversions are the number one way for creating HIVE in April 2022. Part from the authors rewards are paid in HBD, so there is a share of authors rewards in the conversions as well, but not as big.

The curation rewards are second.

HIVE removed by category.

The transfers to the DHF are on the top here. This is basically the excess HIVE from the @hbdstabilizer. When these funds are sent back to the DHF they are instantly converted to HBD. On the second spot are the ninja mine conversions in the DHF.

Net HIVE created in April 2022 1.67M .

All the best @dalz

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta