Market Watch: Scraping Rocks at $28k

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As predicted, the alt market got a bit stomped on the way down to $30k, no surprises there. Volume isn't at danger zone levels yet, but it's not great and could drop within 24 hours.

Threat of flash-crash?

Everyone is worried about that flash crash to $25k or even $22k, but are this scenario really the most likely one?


To me it feels more like we are in a situation where we are about to find out how low the price can go, not issue in another wave of extreme fear panic dumping.

All the on chain analysts have been thrilled with what they are seeing. Does Bitcoin even have enough negative energy to flash crash at this level? I don't think so. At worst I see a shallow scoop down to $28k to fleece out the rest of the cowards.

Of course during this time down to $28k, which is only a 7% loss, many alts should get hammered by 14% or more. The alt market buffer is still quite in play and many market-making bots will retreat back to the safer asset as they often do.

The information we get from Bitcoin within the next month should give us a pretty good indication of when the next bubble comes. If we have truly lost all momentum and return to the doubling curve, I highly doubt we will recover so soon in Q4, maintaining 18 months between bubbles (June 2022).

However, if Bitcoin doesn't go under $28k and scrapes these final rocks, this would lead me to believe we are going to repeat the 2013 run, one that lasted until April and then ran up again in December/January. So far the fractal there is slowly becoming more accurate over time.


Hive has scraped rock bottom multiple times.

Anyone who's been in this community for a while knows to buy when the price is between 10-15 cents. This is where Hive scrapes rock bottom, and we've done it quite a few times.

For me, I get the same feeling about Bitcoin at the moment, where everyone is just done and being very annoyed with a slowly declining price, but still hodling. The vast majority of weak hands are already gone, and the bulls are out of buying power at the moment. All on-chain metrics show extremely bullish activity from across most of the network. USD liquidity on the exchanges seems to be the main issue. Bitcoin has been trading with the economy for a bit now.



Everyone is worried about a flash crash, but no one seems to be worried about a bear-trap scenario that finally liquifies the rest of the weak hands just looking to bail as the price dips below $30k. The anticipation and fear of a flash-crash could be capitalized on by the sharks in these waters without ever actually materializing.

I see two possibilities playing out here, either thin ice is cracking and we are about to plunge into icy waters ($22k-$24k), or we dug as far as we are going to dig and we are now digging into rock-bed and can't go much further ($28k floor).

Market is pretty temporarily weak and bearish in both short-term scenarios. Goddess moon doesn't come to support for another 3 days.

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