Oh! So it's gonna be like that, huh?
Obviously everyone is QQ about the market right now.
Not really keen on writing another post based on price action, but here we are. My long position was liquidated last night in my sleep (as per usual). I used the left-over funds to bail myself out of the cub kingdom to get more CUB/BUSD LP. At this point that BUSD is a really good lifeline. If it wasn't for DEFI I'd never have that many stable coins, so while DEFI and CUB have been a brutal landscape, I'm still grateful that these incentives exist that put me in a much better position on the downswing.
Like many before me, I tried to make my money back instead of capitulating, and all I succeeded in doing was losing more money. It's not the first time. It could be the last though. I am slowly but surely learning the hard lessons. So far, this surprisingly isn't even nearly as bad as 2018 yet. Perhaps we have a long way to go before recovery. The piss-poor state of the legacy economy would seem to corroborate this sad state of affairs. When it rains it pours!
Considering a recession hasn't come into play yet this puts us all in a super awkward position. It's not like I'm going to risk even more to double down on some other long position at this point. Finding some low-paying job like I did in 2018 with Amazon is not really a viable option for me at this juncture. Rather, I just have to accept this capitulation phase and play it safe so I don't get sent to the poor house.
15%! WHAT!
It's wild to see that Bitcoin is only a 15% dip away from the 2017 highs of $20k. Wow! That escalated quickly! You know I was put in a similar position during the 2018 bear market as well. I had my ETH/DAI MakerDAO positions liquidated TWICE and still some how ended up making money in the long run. I guess that's what happens when the price runs up from $230 to $4000. Such volatility!
And of course we can all see that everyone complains about the volatility (when number go down of course), but no one actually proposes any ideas on how to reduce it. I mean I have some theories, but they've never actually been put to the test so who knows if they even work. That's not really the point though... The point is that currencies are supposed to be stable, but no one is trying to make their currency more stable. It's some intriguing psychology. Why is it happening?
My guess would be is the cultural celebration of greed that we see on a daily basis. People like to gamble. People celebrate the volatility when number goes up and then cry foul during the downswing. Deep down the extremely high stakes of this roller coaster ride are exciting, and toning it down doesn't seem to be something that people actually want at the moment. No one wants to be the adult and lower the token price when it's overbought to stabilize the market. Maybe one day when the space has matured a bit we'll see some solutions to this effect. Until then, gamble gamble.
And thus, without proper incentives to stabilize these networks, that leaves it to us plebs to figure it out for ourselves. To buy low and sell high independently and to employ our own responsible strategies for building wealth. Clearly, this isn't a situation that works out very well on the average. Can devs do something? Again, I have some ideas to this end, but they have not been tested (or even developed) yet. Wen?
Everyone says the bear market is for building but that trope has officially been played out now. No one wants to hear that losing all this money is actually a good thing. Sounds more like delusion to some. That being said, my motivation to build is increasing, so perhaps there's something to it after all. It's not like I ever hear the lead devs of Hive crying about the price. They just keep their noses to the grindstone and keep building. That's admirable. This ragtag community isn't going anywhere, but it's possible we should all own a little bit more Bitcoin just in case we get another repeat of 2019/2020. That is how I acquired most of my Hive, after all.
Speaking of Bitcoin...
Dominance is up to 45%. Like I've said on a couple other occasions, 60% is a very real possibility given a brutal crypto winter. Many users have tried to tell me this is an incorrect assessment because there are so many stablecoins out there and whatnot. Uh, spoiler alert: the market cap of stable coins dips just as badly as everything else during the bear market. It is known. Obviously this isn't relevant to those who need to sell out because the stable coin is still worth $1, but it's very relevant to the dominance rating.
2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curves
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13867 | $14933 | $16000 | $17067 | $18133 | $19200 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20267 | $21333 | $22400 | $23467 | $24533 | $25600 |
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
Curve not being respected at all.
Already we find ourselves back at the October 2021 level. Hm, that's pretty wild. Talk about two steps forward one step back. Historically I'd say that Bitcoin has a way of recovering quite quickly when it dips below the trendline like this, but also historically Bitcoin has never been in a recession so perhaps there's an argument to be made that there is no history for what we are about to witness.
Celsius Network mention
Amid the gloom and doom in the news feed on my phone, the one thing that stands out is the Celsius Network halting withdrawals and the accusations of insolvency being thrown around. I'm a bit out of my element here because I'm not very familiar with the Celsius Network.
an excellent platform for beginners who don't want to face any risk while trading crypto.
Well isn't that adorable sentiment.
Who writes this stuff? Celsius? :D
Institutional investors also being accused of insider trading.
When institutions dump before the dump, people take notice. At this point after the whole LUNA debacle we may have to ask ourselves:
Is crypto under full-on attack right now and we don't even know it?
Or is this just what happens when a greedy market becomes overleveraged and assumes the price can't drop below $30k? Maybe a little of both? Clearly the sharks are circling, but it's unclear what kind of attacks are being launched behind the veil.
On another level this almost feels like a play to knock all the weak hands into the dirt so that institutions can buy up these networks on the cheap. I mean we haven't even gotten to the part where regulators crack down because of everything that just happened, on top of a potentially crippling recession. And that's not even FUD, but rather an objective statement of the facts as I see them. Wouldn't it be foolish to think that regulators aren't going to come in gunz-a-blazin? Wouldn't it be foolish to ignore that the economy is on life-support right now and "inflation" is a very alarming indicator of where this is all going?
Again, this just puts us all in a very awkward position. We can all see that Bitcoin is a great deal at $23k, but there are still plenty of wildcards out there that can smack it around a bit more. I suppose at the end of the day it's not about timing the market, but time in the market. When we make that decision to buy we usually get over-excited and go all in with everything we got. Unfortunately that's almost never the correct way to play it, and it's certainly the most volatile way to play it with the highest risk.
Under threat of sounding like a broken record: DCA DCA DCA
Number go up: sell a tiny amount.
Number go down: buy a tiny amount.
Sounds so simple but it's weirdly the hardest thing to do in crypto.
Looking at lines on a chart is nothing like living lines on a chart.
This is something I didn't understand when I first got into crypto. It was one thing to look at the Bitcoin crash of 2014 on my screen in retrospect, but actually living through the brutal crypto winter of 2018/2019 was something else entirely. I imagine what I experienced in 2018/2019 was very similar to what people experienced in 2014, but again those raw emotions simply don't translate when looking at a chart.
And now we are nearing $1k again...
And do you think the, "you're so lucky you got in under $1k" guy is buying? lol, of course not. We've seen it happen a thousand times. No one wants to buy during FUD season. Fuel to the volatility fire. Can someone post the theater meme of everyone wanting to buy at $69k but no one wants to buy at the current price? KK, thanks in advance.
Conclusion
Today's crash was a very sobering experience. Many mixed feelings about this whole situation. I think in the end the most frustrating thing is that everyone around here wants to work and make money from their work and provide value to the network/community, but for many that's simply not a viable option due to the lacking infrastructure and opportunity being currently offered in the cryptosphere. This community doesn't need a million bloggers, just like it doesn't need a million doctors, lawyers, or hair stylists. Fully functioning economies have a wide array of professions, goods, and services that need to be provided, and crypto just isn't there yet in terms of infrastructure. Too bad so sad. Soon™
So again, even amid this river of blood we are all wading through, I'm still grateful that I find myself in the current position of being able to write these words for money while still having the opportunity to reinvest the surplus into what will hopefully be a future filled with opportunity. #dreambig!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
