Musings of a Retail Investor

Did you all see the pullback on the charts recently after a massive runup in the crypto market? If you head over to @coingecko's website, you will see that the market is all red again.

If you abide by the four-year cycle crypto has been going through since its conception, the bottom was probably sometime back around the end of December. So, is this another chance for another lower low? Who knows.

At the end of the last bull cycle, I did take some profits and set them aside for buying near the bottom. By mid-December, I put part of that fund into the market. Was I close to the bottom? Almost. However, I did not engage all my funds in the market. Some of you might ask, but why? Well, it's hard to know when the exact bottom will happen without insider information.

When everything started to take off last month, I had a sinking feeling in my stomach. Then, I had to snap out of it and be realistic. Most of us will never buy at the bottom and sell at the top. I know I didn't manage to sell everything I wanted at the top back in November '21.

One of my colleagues described the situation the best.

"Well, we're probably past the bottom, but I'm pretty sure we are not even in the middle either. Plenty of time to DCA or jump in before the halving."

This cycle has been more complex than the previous ones. We have unfavorable macroeconomic factors as well as uncertainties around the globe. We are essentially in the front-row seat to see how crypto unfolds amidst the environment it was supposed to counter. We are witnessing historical changes happening before our eyes.

As I disperse the rest of the funds set aside in waves through the rest of this month, I'll hope for the best. Once the "bulk purchases" come to pass, the next thing is to find a point to let go during the bull market, most likely sometime in 2025. It'll be here before we know it.

Of course, this is no financial advice.

We live in fascinating yet terrifying times. Stay safe.

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