What's The Best Strategy?
Now that the danger is next door, or knocking on the door already to be precise, my priority is to put my things in order and have a strategy if things get worse. I prefer to be categorized as insane for doing this by those who think we're safe as nothing will happen, rather than be unprepared and suffer in case something happens.
FOMO
As I mentioned in my previous posts, it's been known panic will settle in, in the neighboring countries as well and will have as immediate effect like higher rates at the exchanges, as well as higher prices everywhere. This is kind of similar to what's happening in crypto, when people start to hype a certain token, price starts to move, retail FOMO in, then the dump happens as at some point there will be no one to buy. The difference between the two is that in this case there will be no dump as there's no one to dump anything.
Yesterday the EURO/RON rate at the exchanges was at 5.16 and today there's an investigation going on, started by the Romanian government as in the capital city, Bucharest, EURO is selling at 5.32.
Prices are already going up, gas is already more expensive, basic products are also more expensive and this is just the beginning.
In The War Zone
To cut the story short, if this moron decides to push the button, then there's no reason to worry anymore, there's no reason to go through the options as one or two nuclear missiles are enough to finish the job and as I'm pretty close, there will be no headache anymore. If not, then a good plan can never hurt. Let's see what are the options to stay funded in case your country is in war and you have to survive a few months.
A) Local Currency
Although local currency is losing its value with a breakneck speed in times like this, that is what you can use when buying the most needed things to stay alive, like groceries, water, fuel and so on.
As it already happened in Ukraine, when the news about the invasion broke out, there were mile long queues at the ATMs as people knew life is going change dramatically. These queues usually end when the ATMs run out of cash and banks can't refill them in time, or at all. These are the times when "entrepreneurs" are stepping in, offering cash if you transfer the money in their bank accounts. They are not doing this out of goodness as there's a fee to pay, 10%, 20%, or who knows how much.
B) Credit Or Debit Cards
These plastic pieces will only help you to take out cash from the ATM as no shop will allow people to pay via card, that is 100% certain. So the best option to cash out what you can, till you can.
C) Foreign Currency - $ or €
Foreign currency is good as well, but only up to one point. I mean it is way better to hold foreign currency, than local currency, which will worth very little once the war starts.
A loaf of bread now costs over 100 UAH, previously 12-14 UAH. source
This is a real case, that happened not even a week ago in Ukraine, but it is a no brainer, that the first thing every shop does is to spike prices.
When you have to pay 10x more for the basic groceries, foreign currency can come in handy. The problem is not many will be able to exchange a 100€ bill but these are small details. Maybe you can exchange it for local currency.
D) Crypto
As store of value, crypto is the best option in a case like this, however, things are not so simple. When you have some savings that you don't need for a longer period, meaning you have enough to survive as long the war lasts, crypto is definitely one of the best options, besides foreign currency. No matter in what country you end up after being forced to flee your country, crypto will be there for you.
If you have a debit card issued by an exchange, you can cash out some crypto in case you need some cash, but there's a big IF in this case. Crypto at this point is tied to internet use. No matter where you are keeping your crypto holdings, on exchanges or in a cold wallet, you need a good internet connection to transfer your assets to an exchange, then to your card or bank account.
Up until now there seems to be internet in Ukraine as we're in touch with our users stuck in the war zone, but no one knows for how long. As things evolve, strategic points will be bombed, among which telecommunication towers as well, to paralyze the whole icity and then you can hold your cold wallet in your hand and die of hunger as you can't sell your crypto.
E) Commodities Like Gold And Silver
Investing in silver and gold is also a way to store value, many are collecting coins, you can see their posts on Hive. Unfortunately in case of a war, if you have to run, you will not be able to carry a bag of gold or silver with you and selling those coins will be almost impossible. Maybe some will have some spare cash to buy such things but not at the real value.
So What's The Best Option?
Answering this question is not so simple. If you only have the bare minimum, then local currency is the option. If you have a little bit more, then maybe holding some foreign currency won't hurt. If you are well off, you can opt for local currency, foreign currency and crypto.
No one should be forced to make such decisions, but the future is unpredictable, you never know what's going to happen next. So it's good to have an idea where you stand and what you want to should do. Having a good plan never hurts, especially if your life depends on it.
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