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Saturday Savers Club Progress week 12 - and how to calculate a 12 week moving average

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Hoosie
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Its week 12 (25/03/23) of my savings focus for 2023 with the Saturday Savers Club which I think is a great Hive community initiative run by @shanibeer writing as @sally-saver on the @eddie-earner account.

For the near future I will just be focusing on generating HIVE. So my main target is my Hive Power annual goal, and then other methods that contribute to that.

Weekly Stats

It will take a few more weeks to set up all the stats I want to track, hence the table is not quite complete yet.

Weekly Commentary

  • My weekly gain was +35 HP which is well below my 12 week moving average of 63.5 HP - due to lower post payouts, and also because I've been directing HBD payouts towards HIVE:HBD trading as I've been making opportunity from that of late,
  • My 12 week moving average HP income continues to drop and is now at +63.5 HP which is more reflective of my real HP growth since the start of the new year, as I've seen a post payout drop since then,
  • My HP total is 4232. I need a further 5768 HP to hit my 10K target, which at 40 weeks to go requires 143 HP per week (gone up another 2 per week). So the annual target continues to get more difficult by the week and is looking out of reach, but I'll keep shooting for it. Although I've not yet moved anything into HP from HIVE:HBD trading, and that will provide a boost later in the year,
  • My Hivestats weekly author reward was +40 HP which aint great - must do better !,
  • My Hivestats weekly curation reward was +3.23, which is a little lower than it has been, but still above my 12 week moving average (just !),
  • I had better than average weekly increases for curation rewards, EDSMM, DHEDGE, Delegated HP to @dhedge and HBD:HIVE trades (numbers of),
  • My HP delegation to DHEDGE is working nicely, the spreadsheet shows that I'm not on track to hit that annual target, but its not right. I am now on track for that, and its just that my 12 week moving average hasnt caught up yet - it will do in the next week or so,
  • My weekly HIVE income from other sources (30 day moving average) was +1.02 HP. This is proving to be a lot harder to increase than I thought, although the strategy I'm currently taking focuses on other things. It should improve later in the year - but I dont think it will increase massively,
  • In terms of annual targets, I'm currently on track to hit my ARCHON target - and DHEDGE (its just not reporting right). I would like to buy more EDS to help with that target, but the price keeps going up so that isnt as easy as I had hoped ! I'm hoping to catch-up with SPI soon - will have to see how that goes,
  • HBD:HIVE trading - Its been an excellent week due to the pump in HIVE price earlier in the week when it shot up to $0.5387. It then relaxed back to normal levels shortly afterwards. I was able to catch it going up (selling HIVE for HBD) and then sold the HBD gained back into HIVE when it settled back down. I had 51 trades/flips go through, and some of them were at nice percentage gains (14% was the highest). So it really was a great week for trading !

Plan for the coming week

  • To continue to make sure I post daily to ensure daily HBD and HIVE author rewards,
  • To be active in HIVE Blog curation to help with HIVE curation rewards,
  • To continue to increase undelegated HIVE in order to improve HIVE curation rewards,
  • HBD:HIVE Trading - this continues to be a large focus area for me. I'll continue to use all HBD post payouts for trading while I'm building up my liquid trading fund,
  • To keep taking regular profits (weekly and monthly) from some other token income streams to fund investment in layer 2 tokens or pools that payout in HIVE or HP - EDS are a particular target at the moment (although are quite high in price now) - and I'm considering adding LGN,
  • To produce a monthly article for the @SPinvest account, which pays a 5 SPI reward to help towards that target,
  • This weeks 25% HP delegation of HIVE I've powered up (9 HP) is going to @DHEDGE to help me hit my annual target for DHEDGE (they pay out daily DHEDGE drips at a rate of 21% APR - which is quite high for a HP delegation). Once I'm happy with my @DHEDGE delegation (100HP total, to start with) I'll then move onto something else that helps - will probably start topping up my @qurator delegation,
  • I've also been selling other layer 2 tokens I'm not using, to generate more swap.hive to put into tokens that provide a passive income in HIVE.

So my HP weekly increase was pretty poor, but catching the HIVE pump in HIVE:HBD trading more than made up for it - so its been one of the best weeks of 2023 for me so far - cant complain at that !

And as a reminder - its the 1st of April next Saturday - HPUD time again ! It seems to come around pretty fast each time. You know what to do - dont be an April fool !

Calculating a 12 week moving average

Last week in the SSC post @shanibeer asked about the 12 week moving averages that I use - so here what you need to know !

Why use a 12 week moving average ?

  • Weekly gains can vary quite a lot from one week to the next,
  • I like to be able to get a feeling of what my general growth rates are in order to decide what action I need to take going forward,
  • Rather than using a weekly figure, I use a weekly average that is calculated from 12 weeks worth of data,
  • A 12 week average smooths out the weekly fluctuations to provide a better general figure that will be more reflective of actual current growth rates,
  • I prefer to use that when looking at forecasts and tracking against annual targets. It gives me a more realistic picture of whats happening,
  • It then means that the decisions I need to make about how I invest and want to grow, going forward are based on better information.

How do you calculate a 12 week moving average ?

Its pretty easy if you have access to spreadsheet software (I use Excel). Follow the diagram above and the following steps.

  1. First of all you need to collect 12 weeks worth of data. In the example above I'm calculating it for my HP growth. Each week, note down your HP value.
  2. Once you have 12 weeks worth of values, you can then calculate your total gain over the 12 week period by subtracting the oldest HP value (week 1) from the newest HP value (week 12).
  3. Then to get the weekly average over the 12 weeks, simply divide the total gain by 12 - simple !
  4. To get the best out of this, you then need to calculate it each week as you add new data - this is the 12 week moving average.
  5. Add your next weeks worth of data (week 13).
  6. Calculate your new 12 week gain (this time using the data for weeks 2 and 13),
  7. Divide by 12 again to get the new 12 week moving average - and then repeat each week going forward.

Everything you need including the spreadsheet formulas are in the picture above. I hope that helps !

And I've just noticed that this just happens to be week 12 of 2023, so applying it today gives you a true 12 week moving average from the start of 2023 !

Interested in the Saturday Savers Club ? Check out their latest posts here.

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